469
FXUS61 KBGM 291810
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
210 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop south towards the PA line today,
bringing scattered showers to the Southern Tier of NY later this
morning, and especially northeastern Pennsylvania this
afternoon. Drier but continued cooler conditions will return
tonight into Thursday, with a slow warm up expected leading
into a pleasant weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
954 AM update...
Just some minor adjustments made to the precipitation forecast
this morning to account for the delayed onset of light rain
showers across central/southern NY. It appears that the light
convective rain showers may start to get going just before noon
and then expand in coverage and intensity through the afternoon
as the entire area of precip oozes south/sewd. Otherwise, no
major changes made to the forecast at this time.

323 AM Update...

A broken, weakening line of showers approaching the NY Thruway
is associated with a weak cold front will which continue to drop
south today. This will become the focus for another round of
convective showers and isolated thunderstorms later this morning
and early this afternoon, similar to what we saw yesterday,
with localized heavy downpours. By the time we destabilize, the
front will be near the Southern Tier of NY, and as a result most
of the precip will be across the southern half of the CWA today,
with PA most favored as a wave moves along the front later this
afternoon into the evening hours.

Overnight, we`ll clear out from NW to SE, and as drier
conditions work into the low levels, we`ll have fair conditions
for radiational cooling, allowing temperatures tonight into
Thursday morning to drop well into the 40s, with a few colder
spots near the Finger Lakes flirting with the upper-30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
240 AM update...

High pressure will be in control for the end of the work week,
giving us quiet conditions. With northerly flow and mostly clear
skies Thursday night, good radiational cooling should take place and
lead to temperatures cooler than most guidance. The NBM Tenth
Percentile was favored for temperatures, lows will be in the upper
30s to low 40s. Temperatures begin to trend warm Friday as heights
increase with a ridge building into the region. Highs will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Breezy conditions are expected under a tight
pressure gradient as peak gusts up to 20 mph possible. Overnight
lows Friday will be in the 40s. Despite skies being clear once again
Friday night, this forecast favored NBM guidance for now as a warmer
air mass continues to work its way into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 AM update...

The first half the weekend starts out dry but then a weak
disturbance moves in by Sunday. Chances for showers are low, in fact
just slight chance as this system will have to overcome the drier
air over the region. Weak instability could also support isolated
afternoon thunderstorms. This weak shortwave will support spotty
showers into Monday as well. A brief break is expected as another
upper ridge builds into the region. Then a weak wave embedded in the
ridge will kick off additional spotty showers on Tuesday. As with
past updates, there remains uncertainty during the early portion of
the week, especially with coverage of showers. None of the days look
like a wash out at this point though.

Temperatures will continue to slowly climb to above average during
the first half of the first week of June. Highs will range from the
70s to low 80s on Saturday but 80s will be widespread by Tuesday.
The cool nights in the 40s come to an end this forecast period as
lows in the 60s become possible by Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak cold front dropping slowly south across the area this
afternoon and interacting with a weak amount of instability to
trigger widespread showers and some isolated weak thunderstorms
through 6-8 PM this evening. Flight conditions at all terminals
are currently VFR, but with the introduction of showers and
increased boundary layer moisture, some MVFR vsbys and cigs are
possible through 00Z. Drier air is expected to move in from the
north/nw tonight which will act to clear out most of the clouds
and leave light winds and favorable conditions for radiational
cooling and the development of fog and scattered low clouds
through early Thu morning. Confidence in IFR conditions is
highest at ELM, while it can`t be ruled out at ITH, BGM and AVP.
RME and SYR should remain VFR through the period.

Winds gusting 10 to 15 kt this afternoon will weaken to 3 kt or
less tonight, or calm in some spots, and then become gusty again
from the northwest after 14Z Thu 10 to 15 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Saturday...Quiet pattern with mainly
VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Small chance of a shower or storm/brief
restriction Sunday and Monday afternoon.



&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...BJT/MPH