298
FXUS61 KBGM 141405 CCA
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1005 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather is expected today with scattered afternoon
showers. Thunder may also occur in the northern Finger Lakes to
NY Thruway counties. More showers move in this evening as an upper
wave lifts into the region. Unsettled weather will continue
through the weekend with at least a chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms most days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
955 AM Update...
Updated forecast to work out details of squeeze play between
our convective chances across the NY Thruway zones this
afternoon, and the upper wave aloft that advects from the
southwest late afternoon-evening primarily in Northeast PA-
Catskills NY. Between those two areas, much of NY- PA border
zone and up the I-88 corridor will have relatively low chances
for showers.

Confidence has also increased for a lack of thunder
south of Finger Lakes-NY Thruway zones so that was eliminated
accordingly. However, for those northern zones themselves,
showers will be convective and probably contain some thunder
this afternoon-early evening. Inverted-V profiles evident in
lowest 5000 feet of model soundings, so despite very limited
shear and only modest instability, there could be localized yet
subsevere gusts underneath cells thanks to those steep low level
lapse rates.

Previous discussion...
With a warm front north of our region, southerly winds have
kept most of the region mixed as well as warmer than previous
nights. Some of the deeper valleys have decoupled with light
winds and temperatures falling into the mid to upper 40s with
some fog development. Today, a broad upper level low will
traverse through the mid Atlantic with some falling 500 mb
heights that will help steepen mid level lapse rates.
Instability will be around 500 to 1000 J/kg this afternoon with
lessening CIN as the 500 mb shortwave moves in this evening.
With the upper level low near by and our region under the
trough, wind shear will be lacking with only 10 to 20 knots of
shear. With dry air in the boundary below the storms, initial
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may be gusty but as
deeper moisture advects in and saturates much of the atmosphere,
there will just be garden variety showers and thunderstorms
this evening.

With continued warm air advection through tonight along with
cyclonic vorticity advection aloft, showers and isolated
thunderstorms will likely persist through the night into much of
the day tomorrow. Precipitable water values are mostly between
an inch to 1.25 inches and with overall weak lift, most areas
will see around a half inch of rain to an inch of rain over the
next 36 hours. Training showers and storms look unlikely given
the cloud layer winds and storm motion vectors dont line up but
with a warm front near by, if that stalls then under that
stalled front locations could get over an inch of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
335 AM Update...

An exiting low pressure system south of the forecast area will
maintain light rain showers Wednesday night through Thursday. We
begin to see a decrease in rain showers heading into Thursday
night as weak ridging pushes up into the forecast area. This
will be a short-lived break before the next system moves into
the area Friday late afternoon. Southwesterly flow allows for a
warming trend, with temperatures recovering into the low- to
mid-70s from the mid- to high-60s that will occur on Wednesday.
Chances for afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday across the
Finger Lakes and northern Central NY region is possible, but
will most likely be non-severe.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
335 AM Update...

The next system drags a large cold front across our forecast
area on Saturday, dropping high temperatures back down into the
mid- to high-60s with rain showers. After Saturday, long-term
model guidance is all over the place for what may happen. The
ECMWF has the driest solution, with Central NY and NE PA
remaining mainly dry heading into the early week. The GFS and
Canadian models both have a solution where the main core of the
system impacting our area through the early week with continuous
rain showers and afternoon chances for thunderstorms. For now,
we went with the wetter solutions, until there is a better trend
of solutions that show a drier scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through at least 18Z though a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms develop mid afternoon that
could mainly impact SYR, RME, and ITH. Confidence was too low to
include any restrictions in the TAFs prior to 0Z as the showers
and thunderstorms will be isolated. Tonight, better moisture
moves in with rain with IFR or near IFR at most terminals but
SYR and RME where southerly winds keep cigs higher with lighter
rain.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Periods of rain and possible
embedded thunderstorms look to bring widespread MVFR
restrictions. Periodic IFR also possible at some sites. Moderate
to high confidence

Thursday through Friday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high
pressure moves overhead. Moderate confidence.

Saturday...The next system looks to enter the region Fri night
into Saturday with showers and storms and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MDP
NEAR TERM...AJG/MDP
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG