602
FXUS61 KBGM 300723
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
323 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front pushes through today with a few strong thunderstorms
possible in Northeast PA during the late morning and early
afternoon. High pressure will build into the region for the
first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
320 AM Update...

Cold front approaching the region this morning with showers and
thunderstorms popping up across central NY. Some of these
thunderstorms cold be strong or borderline severe this morning
with localized damaging winds possible as well as torrential downpours.
Cold front moves through later this morning and early this
afternoon. Instability will have a chance to
develop mainly across NEPA and possibly Sullivan County, NY.
There is still nearly 50 knots of 0-6 km shear present, so any
storm that develops ahead or along the front in the late morning
and early afternoon could become strong to severe.

High pressure will build in behind the front tonight, however
upper trough remains overhead and some lake enhanced rain
showers will be possible across Central NY into Monday morning.
Otherwise, Monday looks mostly dry with pleasant temperatures in
the low 70s for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update...

Surface high pressure is in control during this period with the
first half of the week staying dry. Upper level trough is slow to
move out with northwest flow remaining in place Monday night. Clear
skies and light winds will make it a favorable night for radiational
cooling allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.
Upper level ridge moves in on Tuesday with surface high centering
over our region. Southerly flow returns with temperatures climbing
into the upper 70s to the low 80s during the day. Temperatures are
more mild overnight with lows ranging in the low to mid 60s with a
pocket of mid 50s over the Western Catskills region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
320 AM Update...

Upper level ridge with southerly flow holds for one more day keeping
temperatures warm on Wednesday with highs in the low to upper 80s.
High pressure slides to the east Wednesday with a system over the
midwest starting to approach our region by the evening. This kicks
off showers and thunderstorms that will continue into Thursday.
Thursday is a bit up in the air in terms of precip chances depending
on how far south the front can push before stalling out.
Another wave tracks northeast and into our region by Friday, with
more showers and thunderstorms. Models begin to diverge for the rest
of the period, therefore relied on NBM Pops through Sunday.
Temperatures during this time frame will be warm with highs ranging
in the low to upper 80s with overnight lows in the low to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Moist airmass over the region with showers and thunderstorms
developing early this morning and heading into RME and SYR
around 3 AM (07Z) and eventually into ITH just before sunrise.
It is unknown at this time how far southeast this line of
thunderstorms will push, but storms may also impact ELM and BGM
later this morning, but confidence was just too low to add to
the forecast at this time. Fog and low ceiling will likely also
be a concern at ELM and AVP through the early morning hours.

Flight conditions gradually improve to VFR later this morning or
early afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR. Isolated restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible, mainly southern half of the area.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night into Thursday...Restrictions with showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JAB/MPK