163
FXUS61 KBGM 190644
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
244 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the region
through the rest of the week and into the weekend with mainly
dry and mild weather conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

245 AM update...

There has been some clearing in the clouds early this morning
and as such, valley fog became widespread. Any fog this morning
will dissipate by 14Z and then another warm day is expected with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s as cloud cover will be less
today. More clearing tonight with high pressure overhead and
areas of valley fog will develop once again. Friday will be
similar to today with high pressure still in control and
temperatures again in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
145 PM Update...
Warm and mainly dry pattern continues, though spotty showers
could occur at times east of Interstate 81.

Friday through Saturday, light cyclonic flow around the
periphery of the disorganized yet stacked wobbling coastal low
may still attempt to get spotty showers against the Poconos-
Catskills and perhaps as far west as I-81 but mostly east. More
cloud cover, and somewhat cooler temperatures, will also be in
these same areas. Most of the time and area, dry conditions will
continue with temperatures still slightly above normal. Friday
in particular will still be on the warm side, with highs of
upper 70s-lower 80s along and west of I-81, and even along the
NY Thruway.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
145 PM Update...
High pressure will initially be in the control, though with time
chances of showers will enter the picture.

Surface high pressure will hold on for awhile, but aloft there
are model disagreements for whether and when waves will crash
through the ridge. If nothing else, this will hold temperatures
down to near normal, and increase cloud cover. Some model runs
even yield rain as early as Monday, though midweek will be the
more probable time for rain chances to start climbing. Overall
not seeing any high impact weather at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expecting VFR conditions to persist through the period with high
pressure in control. Valley fog at ELM with VLIFR conditions
through this morning. After the valley fog dissipates it will
be VFR with just some scattered mid/high level clouds around,
but generally mostly sunny conditions are expected.

.Outlook...

Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog possible at
ELM during the early morning hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...KL/MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MPK