912
FXUS61 KBGM 231957
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
357 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers move through the region this afternoon
lingering into the overnight period. Relatively active pattern
supports shower chances through Thursday. Pattern changes in time
for the weekend with high pressure settling back in with drier
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update...

A slow moving upper level short wave continues to pass over the
region this afternoon with scattered showers moving across CNY and
NEPA. Once this final batch of showers exits eastwards, light and
spotty showers will linger through the evening and possibly into the
overnight period. Temperatures today are seasonably cool with highs
ranging in the upper 50s to low 60s this afternoon. Blended in the
NBM 10th percentile to bring down forecasted temperatures as
current observations struggle to reach 60 degrees.

Weak upper level ridging briefly builds back into the region on
Tuesday, with a brief break in precipitation expected before the
next system arrives. As the ridge slides eastwards our region gets
placed in a southerly flow pattern. This will advect more moisture
into our region kicking off more showers especially late Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday night. Although a chance of showers will
still possible before this time frame. Otherwise temperatures will
be relatively comfortable Tuesday afternoon with highs ranging in
the mid to upper 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

A warm frontal boundary will slowly move through the region
Wednesday and Thursday with enough lift and moisture to produce some
scattered showers. QPF once again looks on the lighter side with the
highest amounts of a half inch or less. Currently, this system looks
to move fast enough to prevent deeper tropical moisture from
advecting in. A few ensemble outliers do show deeper moisture with
heavier and more widespread rain that extends through Friday. The
general consensus though is for scattered light showers to end by
Thursday night. Highs look to be in the 60`s and 70`s with lows in
the 50`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Two low pressure systems look to do an unusual Fujiwara effect
across the south later this week into early next week. However,
high pressure looks to build across our region throughout most
of this time keeping chances for showers to our south. Fairly
seasonable with 40`s and 50`s for lows with highs getting into
the 70`s for many locations each day.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Isolated to scattered rain showers continue to move through the
region this afternoon and evening. As a result MVFR to Fuel Alt
restrictions have expanded over most terminals with possible
IFR ceilings at ELM/BGM. RME/SYR will alternate between VFR and
MVFR ceilings for most of the period.

Model guidance hints at fog formation tonight at ELM/BGM, but
confidence is low at this time, therefore a tempo group was
used. Some isolated showers may linger overnight along with
Fuel Alt restrictions at most sites and IFR restrictions at
ELM. Pessimistic ceilings will persist at most terminals through
the end of the period with exceptions at RME/SYR.

.Outlook...

Monday Night Through Tuesday...Restrictions possible with
showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...Generally, unsettled with VFR
ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing
showers.

Friday and Saturday... VFR conditions are possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...ES