Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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311 FXUS61 KBGM 181747 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 147 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 828 AM update... Increased expected cloud cover through the morning hours and also added some slight chances for rain over northeast PA today given the recent trends on the radar and observations of light rain as well. So significant changes made to the overall quiet weather expected in the near term. 240 AM Update: High pressure will remain in control over most of the area today and Thursday. There is a small chance for a few isolated showers to graze our far southern counties in NE PA tonight through Thursday morning, but the majority of the area will remain dry. Low pressure located along the Mid- Atlantic Coastline will track out to sea tonight. This system will likely only spread high clouds across most of our area, other than that small chance for a few showers across the far south. Temperatures will remain warm today and tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 145 PM Update... Warm and mainly dry pattern continues, though spotty showers could occur at times east of Interstate 81. Friday through Saturday, light cyclonic flow around the periphery of the disorganized yet stacked wobbling coastal low may still attempt to get spotty showers against the Poconos- Catskills and perhaps as far west as I-81 but mostly east. More cloud cover, and somewhat cooler temperatures, will also be in these same areas. Most of the time and area, dry conditions will continue with temperatures still slightly above normal. Friday in particular will still be on the warm side, with highs of upper 70s-lower 80s along and west of I-81, and even along the NY Thruway. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 145 PM Update... High pressure will initially be in the control, though with time chances of showers will enter the picture. Surface high pressure will hold on for awhile, but aloft there are model disagreements for whether and when waves will crash through the ridge. If nothing else, this will hold temperatures down to near normal, and increase cloud cover. Some model runs even yield rain as early as Monday, though midweek will be the more probable time for rain chances to start climbing. Overall not seeing any high impact weather at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... No significant changes made to the aviation forecast for the next 24 hours with mostly a repeat of last night/this morning. There could be a very brief and very light rain showers at AVP or ELM this afternoon, but confidence is low. Otherwise, expecting VFR conditions to persist through the period with widespread high clouds today, thinning out tonight with another round of valley fog that should impact ELM with IFR or worse conditions through 13Z Thursday. Winds will remain light and variable. .Outlook... Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog possible at ELM during the early morning hours. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK SHORT TERM...KL/MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...BJT/MPK