859
FXUS63 KBIS 110548
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1248 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures expected today and Tuesday. Highs on
  Wednesday will reach a crescendo with most locations reaching
  the 80s. 90 degree readings are possible in the southern James
  River Valley of North Dakota.

- A 20 to 40 percent chance of showers returns Wednesday
  evening. Higher precipitation chances are then forecast
  Friday night through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Deep surface low is analyzed in southeast Saskatchewan, with a
frontal boundary oriented north-south and extending from the
Turtle Mountains area through the James River Valley. Showers
have ended across the area, with some lingering low-level clouds
across the north central and east seen on nighttime satellite
imagery. Going forecast looks good for the night.

UPDATE
Issued at 947 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Showers continue to push east along an eastward moving frontal
boundary, with clouds clearing west into central in the front`s
wake. Expect all precipitation over western and central ND to be
to the east by midnight, with temperatures dropping into the
lower to mid 50s overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Band of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continues to
push east, with another area of convection moving into western
ND early this evening. The overall severe threat has ended, with
instability quickly dissipating the past couple of hours. Main
update was to modify POPs based on latest radar imagery and
trends.

UPDATE
Issued at 449 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Allowed the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to expire. Storms are
moving into a much less favorable environment as they move
east, with instability expected to greatly diminish elsewhere
southwest with time now through early this evening. ALl products
have been updates.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The bottom line up front is that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has
been issued for Bowman and Adams County until 9 pm MDT. As such,
the main forecast challenge for today is the potential for
severe weather this afternoon and early evening especially for
far southwestern ND.

Presently, an embedded surface low circulation is located in eastern
Montana into northeastern Wyoming within an area of elongated
low pressure from Alberta, through eastern Montana, and into
western South Dakota. Aloft, a shortwave sliding through the
Dakotas is resulting in continued WAA across the forecast area
this afternoon, which should be the primary forcing mechanism
for continued showers and thunderstorms.

The aforementioned surface low pressure circulation will drift east
northeast through North Dakota today. Associated warm frontal
boundary on a north to south axis, along with trailing cold
frontal boundary, will slide across South Dakota. As a result,
the front northern extent will quickly become occluded. Factors
that favor severe weather in the southwest are that the RAP
suggests a narrow swath of 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE in the southwest,
along with adequate shear of 30 to 35 kts of 0 to 6 km bulk
shear. In addition, DCAPE values are generally not impressive,
but a narrow ribbon in excess of 900 J/kg is possible as well in
the far southwest. Besides the southwest, the RAP also suggests
up to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE in the west central and northwest.
However, with excess cloud cover present and having been so all
day, along with morning and early afternoon showers and
thunderstorms working the atmosphere, sufficient instability
may be hard to find in the west central and northwest. Therefore
the severe weather threat seems very low in all but the far
southwest.

Any severe weather threat should end by late evening. At that
point, showers, along with a few thunderstorms, will end from
west to east. Skies will also clear out and Tuesday will feature
a mostly sunny and dry day with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
Other than a 20 to 40 percent chance of showers in the far south
Wednesday evening through Wednesday night, mostly dry
conditions are expected through the remainder of the workweek.
More widespread precipitation chances then return to the area
Friday night, through the weekend, and into next week. Models
are not in full agreement as to how this will play out, but the
potential exists for southwesterly flow aloft as strong upper
low pressure slides through southern Canada, potentially with
troughing into the southwestern CONUS.

Overall, expect temperatures to gradually increase before
reaching a crescendo on Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to
upper 80s (possibly with a few 90 degree readings). Temperatures
will then become seasonable again for the latter half of the
week. Lows in the 50s will prevail through the period, though
occasional drops into the 40s or remnants in the low 60s are
possible various nights.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions expected at all terminals in the wake of an
exiting system. Northwest winds will become breezy across the
north and east on Tuesday, with gusts up to 25 knots possible at
KMOT and KJMS. Winds will diminish in the evening, with mostly
clear skies.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Jones