Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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807 FXUS63 KBIS 161427 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 927 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to windy westerly winds expected today. - Isolated thunderstorms may return across south central and southeast portions of the state tonight. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out. - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across much of North Dakota, except the northwest, Monday through Monday night. - Below normal temperatures expected through at least mid week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 927 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Confidence has increased that the strongest BL winds for momentum transfer will be limited to the northern half of our forecast area. For this update, we have removed Slope, Bowman, Hettinger, Adams, Grant, Morton, and Oliver Counties from the Wind Advisory. This generally lines up with where RAP/HRRR sounding analysis shows a maximum BL wind less than 35 kts. It will still feel windy in those areas this afternoon, but not to the point that an advisory is warranted. No other significant changes were made with this forecast update. UPDATE Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have mostly pushed eastward out of the CWA this morning. Look for mainly dry conditions today, with perhaps some isolated thunderstorms returning tonight. Looking at the latest HREF wind guidance for today has winds increasing later this morning and through the afternoon. These stronger winds may be found across the entire Highway 2 corridor and north. Blended in the latest NBM and NBM90th percentile into the forecast as a result. Have also expanded the Wind Advisory to include all of the Highway 2 and north areas. The rest of the Wind Advisory in western and central portions may have slightly lower confidence than the Highway 2 corridor, although is enough to maintain what is currently issued. Sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph can be expected in these advisory areas. Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are generally expected, with perhaps gusts up to 55 mph in the northwest. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 435 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Cold front continues to progress across central and eastern portion of the state this morning. Along it will be showers and thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather this morning is overall low. CAPE is still marginal yet fairly capped and shear values are starting to come down. That being said perhaps an isolated storm near severe criteria is possible as this front moves through. Behind the front will be strong westerly winds. The highest confidence for these winds still remains in the northwest, although shortly before this publish some of these stronger winds have been reported already in western and some central portions after passage of the front. There could be some lulls in these winds between front passage and them increasing this afternoon. Still decide to go ahead and issued a Wind Advisory for much of the CWA through today. Temperatures today will cool behind this front and be generally in the mid 60s northwest to near 80 southeast. Front stalls across the south tonight and could be the focus for new thunderstorm development. Coverage looks to be isolated to scattered. There remains a Marginal Risk across some south central and southeastern counties for this new development tonight. Shear will remain high, although instability looks low. Thus an isolated severe storm is possible. This stalled front then looks to serve as a boundary for more showers and thunderstorms Monday through MOnday night. A developing surface low in Colorado will also extend an inverted trough across the state, helping create unsettled conditions. The result will be more showers and thunderstorms to the CWA. SPC has maintained a Marginal and Slight Risk across much of the area, except the northwest. There is limited surface and mix layer CAPE with this setup, although abundant MUCAPE implying elevated storms will be favored. These storms will still have abundant shear to work with. Thus started the main hazards as golf ball and 70 mph for Monday through Monday night. Otherwise look for further cooling of temperatures in the 60s and 70s on Monday. Winds will become easterly, and may be breezy in the south. Showers and thunderstorms will be found through Monday night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Another cold front then looks to linger showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday. Limited instability will limit the severe weather potential for Tuesday. Temperatures even further cool with perhaps highs in the upper 50s northwest to lower 70s southeast. Winds could shift back to the northwest on Tuesday behind this front and again be breezy. Shower activity then diminishes Tuesday night with skies at least partially clearing. This secondary front could provide for some quite cool temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. NBM currently puts lows mainly in the 40s. ECMWF EFI Min T values are still around -0.8 indicating an oddly cool night is possible. NBM25th percentile temps are in the upper 30s for some western areas and may require monitoring going forward. The forecast pattern for mid to late week remains similar with generally zonal flow. Perhaps this can gradually warmup temperatures throughout the week, yet near to below normal temps are currently forecast. Any little wave in this zonal flow could bring chances for showers and thunderstorms, thus the NBM has PoPs almost each day with a lull on Wednesday. Some low to modest instability may be found towards the end of the week. This combined with modest to high shear may return at least isolated chances for severe weather. Confidence is low at this point and should be monitored going forward. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions are generally expected through the forecast period. Some lingering MVFR clouds may be found in the east this morning, although confidence was not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. Gusty westerly winds will be found through this afternoon, then diminish this evening, and perhaps become light and variable overnight. Chances for showers and thunderstorms may also return tonight, especially in southern portions. Confidence was not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>003-009>011-017>019-021-031>033. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ004-005-012- 013. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Anglin