749
FXUS63 KBIS 251340
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
840 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue through Thursday with widespread
  highs in the 80s and a few 90s on Thursday.

- Generally dry conditions, and at or above normal temperatures
  (broadly in the 70s and 80s) continue through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

No changes needed for the morning update. Not a cloud in the sky
across western and central ND this morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Quiet weather continues over western and central North Dakota
this morning. Skies are clear, winds are light and variable, and
temperatures are generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s, though a
few locations in the lowers 40s can be found. No updates to the
forecast were needed at this time, as the forecast remains on
track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

High pressure can be found over the northern Plains this
morning, rendering generally dry, calm, and clear conditions.
Low temperatures are generally in the 50s, with a few locations
dipping into the mid to upper 40s where winds have completely
died out. An upper level ridge is found to the west of the
forecast area, expected to move over the forecast area this
afternoon. The progression of this ridge will allow for a
thermal axis to penetrate far north both today and Thursday,
promoting a gradual warming trend. Highs this afternoon are
expected to be above seasonable normals, broadly in the upper
70s to the upper 80s. The ridge is anticipate to become
positively tilted this afternoon as it runs into a flow-blocking
upper level low parked over the southeastern CONUS. With a
shortwave moving in along the backside of the ridge, and
strengthening mid level jet developing over western Montana this
afternoon, breezy south winds are expected to develop late this
morning and through this evening, with speeds generally from 15
to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph possible.

Overnight into Thursday, the deepening shortwave on the
backside of the ridge will push a weak cold front across the
northern Plains through the afternoon, along with some
scattered high level clouds over the northwest. With this cold
front, winds speeds Thursday afternoon could approach 15 to 25
mph, with gusts up to 35 mph, over much of western and central
North Dakota, with the strongest winds in the south central.
Otherwise, dry and clear conditions are expected to continue
over western and central North Dakota on Thursday.

Moving into the weekend, near zonal flow over the northern
Plains will maintain well above seasonable normal temperatures
over the forecast area, with highs generally in the upper 70s to
the upper 80s, while a few locations in the south may even peak
into the lower 90s. With the flow-blocking upper level low
lingering over the southeastern CONUS, reinforced by the
remnants of the Hurricane Helene complex, generally dry
conditions over the northern Plains are expected to continue
though the weekend. The next chance for precipitation may
present itself late Sunday as the blocking upper level low
begins to be displaced by a potentially Pacific trough being
progged, though ensemble confidence on timing and location
remains very low at this time. For now, low PoPs (10 to 20%)
are found across the north Sunday night through Monday
afternoon, though these are subject to change with every model
run and any showers that do develop would be expected to be very
light. The approach of the aforementioned Pacific trough would
also promote a return to cooler temperatures, with fairly good
ensemble agreement for highs back in the 60s and 70s for early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected at all terminals
throughout the 12Z TAF period. Winds this morning are light and
variable, but will organize out of south and strengthen to 10 to
15 knots and gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon. Winds will
remain elevated overnight into Thursday as a cold front moves
across the forecast area, lingering beyond the end of the TAF
period. Some LLWS is also possible tonight ahead of this front
passage, and currently is including in the KMOT and KBIS TAFs.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Adam