877
FXUS63 KBIS 291747
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1247 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible later in the afternoon and early
  evening today, especially in the western two tiers of counties
  along the ND/MT border. Hail up to the size of ping pong
  balls and 70 mph winds are the primary threats.

- With this storm complex, there is an 80 to 90 percent chance
  of a wetting rain (a tenth of an inch or more) for all of
  western through central ND, including the James River Valley.

- Breezy to windy conditions are expected today, especially in
  west and central portions where winds could gust up to 50
  MPH.

- Temperatures will generally be near average through the
  period, although may be slightly below average on Thursday and
  Friday, and slightly above average this weekend into early
  next week. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue
  through the first half of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Severe weather potential for today remains unchanged. Large hail
up to ping pong ball size and wind gusts up to 70 mph remains
the main threats. This morning has seen strong 850 winds mix
down to advisory criteria. This trend could continue through
this afternoon. Advisory level wind gusts should be limited and
generally 45 to 50 MPH. Advisory level sustained winds will be
more widespread and common. Given this potential went ahead an
issued a Wind Advisory for much of western and central portions
for this afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Limited updates needed this morning. Main threat to day is still
the potential for severe weather, especially across the west.
Limited changes needed to time and overall expected hazards.
Look for large hail up to ping pong ball size an wind gusts up
to 70 mph. Meanwhile, synoptically driven southeast winds will
be breezy to windy today. Some sites are already reporting gusts
near 40 mph. Confidence and coverage still not quite high
enough for a wind advisory, although will continue to monitor.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The forecast remains on track early this morning. See full
discussion below for details in regard to severe weather
potential late this afternoon and evening.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The primary forecast challenge remains the potential for severe
weather later this afternoon and evening.

For the day today, breezy to windy conditions are expected across
the CWA with the strongest winds in the southwest and south
central. Winds may approach advisory level. However, gusty
winds are primarily gradient driven as the area is sandwiched
between surface high pressure over Ontario and elongated low
pressure from eastern Alberta down through eastern Montana.
Winds aloft aren`t impressively strong and a low-level
inversion looks to remain in place through the day today
limiting mixing heights. Thus in collaboration with neighbors,
opted not to issue any headlines for winds today. With
southeasterly surface flow and western ND centered under a
thermal ridge, expect above average temperatures in the low 80s
over the west, while near average temperatures in the low 70s are
expected in the central and east.

In regard to severe weather, not a ton has changed over the past 24
hours. That said, there has been one change that is along the
lines of what the previous shift mentioned in regard to any
tornado threat. The threat remains slightly greater than zero
(primarily in the far west), but seems very limited. This is
primarily due to increased confidence in storm mode rapidly
becoming more linear and lower model guidance output in regard
to low level SRH.

In regard to storm mode, the thought persists that with limited deep
layer shear and said shear vectors quickly becoming parallel with
the frontal boundary, any window for supercellular development
is limited. This will result in storms rapidly clustering then
quickly taking on a more linear mode. The threats in this case
remain a narrow window in the later afternoon/early evening for
ping pong ball size hail before rapidly becoming primarily a
wind threat. The western two tiers of counties in the state
really are the most favorable areas for severe weather. Areas
further east may see a sporadic lower end severe wind gust
(around 60 mph) through the evening.

After midnight, the severe threat should have mostly ended as
showers and thunderstorms continue moving eastward through the
night. Showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of the
forecast area Thursday morning before ending from west to east
Thursday afternoon and evening. Mostly dry conditions are then
expected Thursday night through Friday morning.

As has been the case recently, this break in the shower and
thunderstorm activity does not look to last long. A parade of
shortwaves continues as the next wave passes through the area
Friday through Friday evening. This one looks fairly weak only
generating slight chances for showers and thunderstorms. A more
organized wave then looks to pass through sometime Sunday
through Sunday night. Additional waves are then possible through
the middle of next workweek. High temperatures Thursday and
Friday should be near to slightly below average. Beyond that,
forecast highs are near to slightly above average into the
middle of next workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Mainly VFR conditions with breezy to windy southeast winds will
be found through this afternoon. Later this afternoon through
this evening showers and thunderstorms look to develop across
the west and gradually push eastward. A few of these storms
could be strong to severe and bring brief MVFR conditions. A
cold front will then push eastward tonight bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Lower clouds with this front along
with showers could also bring some MVFR conditions. Showers and
a few thunderstorms could linger across the east and north
Thursday morning. Lower clouds and MVFR conditions will
gradually lift to VFR levels through Thursday morning. A breezy
westerly wind may also be found. Some low level wind shear is
possible during passage of this front, although confidence is
not high enough to include at this time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Anglin