088
FXUS63 KBIS 140543
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1243 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
  through the week. A few storms may become strong in the
  west tonight.

- Near average temperatures are expected this week, with highs
  in the mid 60s to upper 70s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to make their way
across the area. Some small hail and gusty winds have been
observed with a cluster of storms in the northwest, but overall
these storms aren`t too strong, and should remain this way
through the overnight hours. Overall, the forecast continues on
track with minimal updates needed at this time.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Scattered showers, along with a few thunderstorms, continue in
western North Dakota. Storms haven`t been strong in the CWA
since the previous update, although some strong storms are
present in northeastern Montana along the main wave. As this
wave progresses into the state over the next few hours, a few
more strong storms are not out of the question. However, with
the sun setting, instability will continue to decrease which
will help limit their potential.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have entered western North Dakota over
the past couple hours. A few strong storms are present in the
northwest with hail up to the size of nickels. That said, with
the best instability and shear not being co-located, any
particular storm is not likely to remain strong for an extended
period (likely less than 30 minutes). Showers and thunderstorms
will continue expanding eastward through tonight and into the
day Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

This afternoon, the progression of a shortwave disturbance down
the overall ridging pattern is pushing an associated surface
low and cold front across the northern Plains. Along this front,
a a modest corridor of instability of around 500 to 1000 J/KG
MUCAPE will be present through the late afternoon. However, this
instability has become increasingly incongruous with the
promised development of widespread showers and thunderstorms
over the past few days, with the most recent model runs delaying
it later into the evening. This, along with the instability
axis being fairly disconnected with the area of highest bulk
shear across the north central this afternoon, limits
expectation to see not much more than scattered showers and some
isolated thunderstorms across the west this afternoon. There
may be a brief period late this afternoon that could see a
stronger storm over the west with some small hail and some gusty
winds, but overall the potential for severe weather is low
today.

Otherwise, some lingering smoke from Canadian wildfires remains
aloft over the forecast today. Near surface smoke has mainly
drained away to our south by this time, but enough remains for
the horizon to remain hazy at times. Winds remain out of the
south southeast today at 10 to 15 mph, with some locations
gusting up to around 25 mph at times. Highs are broadly in the
upper 60s east to upper 70s west. Lows tonight are forecast in
the 40s and lower 50s.

Late Monday into early Tuesday, a slow moving 500-700mb trough
will progress east across the northern Plains, promoting 50 to
80 percent chances for showers across forecast area through
Wednesday afternoon. Modest instability with model CAPE values
of a few hundred J/KG will allow isolated thunderstorm
development (15 to 35 percent chance) through this period,
though limited shear means the potential for strong to severe
storms is low at this time. By Wednesday, portions of central
North Dakota have around a 30 to 45% chance of exceeding 0.50"
of total rainfall. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected
to remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s range, with overnight lows
dropping into the 40s and lower 50s.

As the shortwave progresses past the forecast area late
Wednesday morning, a brief ridging pattern will diminish PoPs
Wednesday afternoon and early evening. By this period another,
more modest shortwave will begin to dig across the northern
plains that will continue to promote ongoing chances for showers
(10 to 20 percent) and isolated thunderstorms (15 to 25%)
through the early weekend as clusters favor it developing into
an upper level low by the end of the workweek. By late Saturday
into early Sunday this newly developed low will progress off
toward the northern Great Lakes region, allowing more sustained
ridging to push across the area and keeping us relatively dry
through early next week. High temperatures through this period
will be around seasonable normals, forecast to broadly be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows are forecast in the 40s and lower
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are moving through the area tonight,
occasionally bringing about reductions in visibility due to heavy
rainfall, low ceilings, and gusty and erratic winds. Every terminal
with the exception of KJMS will see occasional periods of MVFR
conditions with storms that pass over or near them, along with
erratic winds that could gust into the 25 to 30 kt range. KMOT,
KDIK, and KBIS may see some low level wind shear for the next few
hours, with 1 kft southeasterly shear values near 40 kts. As these
storms move east, the prevailing southeasterly winds should increase
and become a bit gusty, especially across the central, with gusts up
to 25 kts possible. Winds will shift to become more northerly
through the second half of the TAF period, as the surface boundary
continues to make its way through the state. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the rest of the TAF period, with
occasional periods of MVFR conditions associated with them across
all terminals.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Besson
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Besson