661
FXUS63 KBIS 161141
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
641 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy to windy westerly winds expected today.

- Isolated thunderstorms may return across south central and
  southeastern portions tonight. An isolated severe storm is
  possible.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across
  much of North Dakota, except the northwest, Monday through
  Monday night.

- Below normal temperatures expected through at least mid week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have mostly pushed eastward out of the
CWA this morning. Look for mainly dry conditions today, with
perhaps some isolated thunderstorms returning tonight. Looking
at the latest HREF wind guidance for today has winds increasing
later this morning and through the afternoon. These stronger
winds may be found across the entire Highway 2 corridor and
north. Blended in the latest NBM and NBM90th percentile into the
forecast as a result. Have also expanded the Wind Advisory to
include all of the Highway 2 and north areas. The rest of the
Wind Advisory in western and central portions may have slightly
lower confidence than the Highway 2 corridor, although is
enough to maintain what is currently issued. Sustained winds of
30 to 35 mph can be expected in these advisory areas. Wind gusts
of 45 to 50 mph are generally expected, with perhaps gusts up
to 55 mph in the northwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Cold front continues to progress across central and eastern
portion of the state this morning. Along it will be showers and
thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather this morning is
overall low. CAPE is still marginal yet fairly capped and shear
values are starting to come down. That being said perhaps an
isolated storm near severe criteria is possible as this front
moves through. Behind the front will be strong westerly winds.
The highest confidence for these winds still remains in the
northwest, although shortly before this publish some of these
stronger winds have been reported already in western and some
central portions after passage of the front. There could be some
lulls in these winds between front passage and them increasing
this afternoon. Still decide to go ahead and issued a Wind
Advisory for much of the CWA through today. Temperatures today
will cool behind this front and be generally in the mid 60s
northwest to near 80 southeast. Front stalls across the south
tonight and could be the focus for new thunderstorm development.
Coverage looks to be isolated to scattered. There remains a
Marginal Risk across some south central and southeastern
counties for this new development tonight. Shear will remain
high, although instability looks low. Thus an isolated severe
storm is possible. This stalled front then looks to serve as a
boundary for more showers and thunderstorms Monday through
MOnday night. A developing surface low in Colorado will also
extend an inverted trough across the state, helping create
unsettled conditions. The result will be more showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA. SPC has maintained a Marginal and
Slight Risk across much of the area, except the northwest. There
is limited surface and mix layer CAPE with this setup, although
abundant MUCAPE implying elevated storms will be favored. These
storms will still have abundant shear to work with. Thus started
the main hazards as golf ball and 70 mph for Monday through
Monday night. Otherwise look for further cooling of temperatures
in the 60s and 70s on Monday. Winds will become easterly, and
may be breezy in the south. Showers and thunderstorms will be
found through Monday night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Another cold front then looks to linger showers and
thunderstorms for Tuesday. Limited instability will limit the
severe weather potential for Tuesday. Temperatures even further
cool with perhaps highs in the upper 50s northwest to lower 70s
southeast. Winds could shift back to the northwest on Tuesday
behind this front and again be breezy. Shower activity then
diminishes Tuesday night with skies at least partially
clearing. This secondary front could provide for some quite cool
temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. NBM
currently puts lows mainly in the 40s. ECMWF EFI Min T values
are still around -0.8 indicating an oddly cool night is
possible. NBM25th percentile temps are in the upper 30s for some
western areas and may require monitoring going forward.

The forecast pattern for mid to late week remains similar with
generally zonal flow. Perhaps this can gradually warmup
temperatures throughout the week, yet near to below normal temps
are currently forecast. Any little wave in this zonal flow could
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms, thus the NBM has
PoPs almost each day with a lull on Wednesday. Some low to
modest instability may be found towards the end of the week.
This combined with modest to high shear may return at least
isolated chances for severe weather. Confidence is low at this
point and should be monitored going forward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected through the forecast
period. Some lingering MVFR clouds may be found in the east this
morning, although confidence was not high enough to include in
TAFs at this time. Gusty westerly winds will be found through
this afternoon, then diminish this evening, and perhaps become
light and variable overnight. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms may also return tonight, especially in southern
portions. Confidence was not high enough to include in the TAFs
at this time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>044.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for NDZ004-005-012-013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin