Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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094 FXUS64 KBMX 201116 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 616 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2024 An impressive 500 mb ridge will become centered over South Texas today with a ridge axis extending to the northeast. Along with height rises, anticylonic curvature of deep-layer flow will promote subsidence and drying of the column, resulting in a slight upward trend in temperatures compared to previous days. Lower 90s should be widespread this afternoon, and a few spots could reach the mid 90s. Similar conditions are expected Saturday as the ridge slowly nudges eastward. 87/Grantham && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2024 Status quo remains in the long term. Upper level ridging tries to remain established across the southeast states into early next week, keeping us in a rain free subsidence zone. By Tuesday, an upper trough flattens the top of the southeast ridge a bit, allowing some lift and slightly better low level moisture to get into central Alabama. Will maintain slight chance to chance POPs in our area through this timne frame. For Wednesday and beyond, forecast confidence really starts to nosedive as model spread starts to really increase. And that includes the tropical Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Got to chuckle at least a little bit at the global model ensemble members that individually have surface lows of varying strength (including nothing at all) stretched across just about any position of the Gulf by this time next week. Suffice to say now is not the time to bite on any single run of any single model, regarding potential tropical impacts for us next week. /61/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2024 VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours along with northerly or variable winds of 6 knots or less. 87/Grantham && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances will remain at zero through the weekend as high pressure takes hold. With temperatures climbing back into the 90s and a modestly dry airmass in place, RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent each afternoon through Sunday. 20 foot winds will remain less than 7 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 91 63 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 91 65 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 91 68 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 92 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 91 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 90 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 93 69 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 91 67 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87/Grantham LONG TERM....61 AVIATION...87/Grantham