130
FXUS64 KBMX 240527
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2024

A line of isolated to scattered showers with perhaps a storm or
two is slowly drifting to the south. As of Midnight the line is
now along the northern edge of Alabama. Look for this thin line to
slowly make it through Birmingham by sunrise and continue south to
Montgomery by 8 to 9 AM. The trends for today will be complicated
as the north will warm up quite a bit today behind the line, but
with drier dewpoints. Areas south of I-85 will warm up early then
fall some with the clouds and rain by mid-day. There may be a warm
up again late afternoon, just before sunset, so highs may be late
here. Areas between I-20 and I-85 will see a slower start to the
day, but will still warm up nicely by the afternoon. Any rain
should be done by sunset. While there could be a few isolated
spots of 105F heat indices, the widespread concern is not
expected today.

Fair weather tonight, with lows dropping into the mid 60s to low
70s. Model guidance continues to trend slightly lower with
dewpoints on Tuesday, as drier air arrives behind the weak front
that settles to our south. This will keep heat indices below 105F
despite temperatures in the mid 90s to 100F.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2024

Best rain chances for the week arrive Wednesday, with a shortwave
trough arriving from the northwest during the day. It slowly
shifts southward, with the focus for thunderstorms activity
shifting to south of I-20 on Thursday. As stated in the previous
discussion, alot of uncertainty this far out regarding MCS
development, but this pattern would support it. Heat returns for
the end of the week, with a more moist airmass remaining in place.
This keeps heat indices around 105F next weekend.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2024

A line of isolated to scattered showers with perhaps a storm or
two is slowly drifting to the south. As of 5z the line is now
along the northern edge of Alabama. Look for VCSH as early as 8z
in the northern 5 sites. Added in a tempo for 2 hours at these
sites as well. Opted to leave thunder out of the TAFs as the
percentages are below 20 percent. MGM will see this line after
12z and TOI after 15z. Winds will be out of the west to northwest
later today behind this line at 6 to 8 kts. Outside of the rain
chances, VFR conditions are expected. Will amend if a TS becomes
more probable.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and a storm or two will be possible
across the southern half of the area. Drier air arrives behind
the front. For today, minimum RH values will range from 30-40
percent for much of the area, and 40-45 percent across the
southern third of the area. On Tuesday, minimum RH values of 24-35
percent are possible. Overnight RH values recover to above 70
percent tonight and Tuesday night. Isolated storms may be
possible across the far south on Tuesday, with better chances on
Wednesday and Thursday. 20ft winds will be from the northwest
today and north on Tuesday, at less than 8 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     96  66  97  70 /  10   0   0  10
Anniston    95  68  96  71 /  20   0   0  10
Birmingham  97  73  99  74 /  20   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  97  72  99  74 /  20   0   0  10
Calera      97  72 100  74 /  30   0   0  10
Auburn      96  72  96  74 /  30   0  10  10
Montgomery  96  73  98  73 /  40   0  10  10
Troy        95  72  98  72 /  40   0  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...16