Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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282 FXUS64 KBMX 230548 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1248 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 825 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024 A 500mb ridge will be centered over the Gulf of Mexico with its axis extending northward across Alabama. The only aside from fair weather tonight and Monday is the potential for spotty, brief showers Monday afternoon, similar to Sunday, as forecast soundings show potential to reach convective temperatures and overcome subsidence aloft. High temperatures on Monday are forecast to again reach the lower 90s, between 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. 89^GSatterwhite && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 206 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024 With continued model agreement in a cutoff upper low approaching the area from the northwest by Wednesday and the influx of tropical moisture from the south, have trended rain chances upward beginning Wednesday. Details on the forecast for the rest of the week will depend on the development and eventual track of a disturbance in the Gulf. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024 Upper level ridge along the Gulf coast will help to keep conditions dry in central Alabama through at least Monday night. By Tuesday, the ridge is flattened a bit by an upper trough moving across the Ohio valley, which helps push a surface front onto our doorstep to the northwest. By the time the front gets here, low level convergence associated with it is rather week. It could produce a few showers or even a thunderstorm or two, but the main impact from this first trough/front may likely just end up being more clouds and a moderation of temperatures. However, that lead shortwave is quickly followed up by a more substantial trough that digs southward into the midwest/midsouth region. It is with this deepening trough that the global models start to diverge. And those model differences (in timing, placement, and strength) remain important in determining whether or not any potential tropical system entering the Gulf would have direct, peripheral, borderline, or null impacts for us here in central Alabama. Therefore, we shall keep using model blends to keep from focusing on any particular run of any particular model, which will in turn allow us to keep forecast update options open (in either direction) as we get into the end of the week into next weekend. /61/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the cycle with just isolated areas of MVFR visibilities between 10 and 13z. Otherwise, look for light/variable to near calm winds through the morning then 5 to 7 kts after 15z though 23 to 1z. There will be a chance for some isolated SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon with heating, but chances are too low to mention in TAFs at this time. AMD NOT SKED for KANB UFN due to a comms issue. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated showers or storms are possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons across the north, but expect most of the area to remain dry. With temperatures in the 90s and a modestly dry airmass in place, minimum RH values should range from 38 to 55 percent through Tuesday. 20 foot winds will be westerly to southwesterly at less than 7 mph. An increase in moisture is expected for by Wednesday, with increased rain chances through the end of the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 69 91 66 / 20 10 20 40 Anniston 93 70 91 68 / 20 10 10 30 Birmingham 93 72 91 69 / 20 10 20 40 Tuscaloosa 94 70 92 68 / 20 0 20 40 Calera 93 71 91 70 / 20 0 10 30 Auburn 93 71 91 70 / 10 0 0 20 Montgomery 95 72 94 71 / 10 0 0 20 Troy 94 69 91 69 / 10 0 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...16