034
FXUS64 KBMX 240744
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
244 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2024

A line of isolated to scattered showers with perhaps a storm or
two is slowly drifting to the south. As of Midnight the line is
now along the northern edge of Alabama. Look for this thin line to
slowly make it through Birmingham by sunrise and continue south to
Montgomery by 8 to 9 AM. The trends for today will be complicated
as the north will warm up quite a bit today behind the line, but
with drier dewpoints. Areas south of I-85 will warm up early then
fall some with the clouds and rain by mid-day. There may be a warm
up again late afternoon, just before sunset, so highs may be late
here. Areas between I-20 and I-85 will see a slower start to the
day, but will still warm up nicely by the afternoon. Any rain
should be done by sunset. While there could be a few isolated
spots of 105F heat indices, the widespread concern is not
expected today.

Fair weather tonight, with lows dropping into the mid 60s to low
70s. Model guidance continues to trend slightly lower with
dewpoints on Tuesday, as drier air arrives behind the weak front
that settles to our south. This will keep heat indices below 105F
despite temperatures in the mid 90s to 100F.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2024

Key messages:

- Rain chances have decreased somewhat and high temperatures have
  increased on Wednesday, but scattered showers and storms are
  still expected with some strong storms with gusty winds possible
  especially in West Alabama.

- Heat indices at or above 105 degrees will be possible Friday
  through the weekend.

Height falls will take place on Wednesday as one shortwave moves
through the Great Lakes and a weaker shortwave in northwest flow
aloft moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Due to the
stubborn dry air mass over our area, the higher rain/MCS chances
continue to trend westward, even west of our forecast area. Still,
given the shortwave and height falls and increasing moisture over
West Alabama, at least scattered showers and storms are expected
with higher coverage possible if any cold pools can organize.
Temperatures have trended upward as well, but with the lower dew
points expect heat indices to remain below 105 on Wednesday. Shear
and mid-level lapse rates will be weak, with instability dropping
off as you go eastward into the dry air. But given the dry air
aloft and hot temperatures at the surface, some strong storms with
gusty winds/microbursts will be possible if the storms can get
going and cold pools can form. Will monitor the mesoscale trends
to see if any isolated severe storms can develop.

A positively tilted trough will extend from the Carolinas
southwestward to the Florida Panhandle on Thursday, while ridging
begins to build back to the east across the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Dry air aloft will be advecting in from the northwest as a
surface frontal boundary washes out. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will be possible especially in our southeast counties
closer to the better moisture. Highs will "only" be in the middle
90s in most locations. Strong subtropical ridging builds back in
over the Southeast Friday through the weekend. This will result in
hot temperatures continuing. Most areas remain dry Friday, but
PWATs increase over the weekend with weak low-level southerly
flow. This means that unlike the previous ridge there will be some
potential for diurnal convection which could impact highs in some
spots. Also, this will result in higher dew points meaning there
will be increasing chances for heat indices at or above 105
degrees.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2024

A line of isolated to scattered showers with perhaps a storm or
two is slowly drifting to the south. As of 5z the line is now
along the northern edge of Alabama. Look for VCSH as early as 8z
in the northern 5 sites. Added in a tempo for 2 hours at these
sites as well. Opted to leave thunder out of the TAFs as the
percentages are below 20 percent. MGM will see this line after
12z and TOI after 15z. Winds will be out of the west to northwest
later today behind this line at 6 to 8 kts. Outside of the rain
chances, VFR conditions are expected. Will amend if a TS becomes
more probable.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and a storm or two will be possible
across the southern half of the area. Drier air arrives behind
the front. For today, minimum RH values will range from 30-40
percent for much of the area, and 40-45 percent across the
southern third of the area. On Tuesday, minimum RH values of 24-35
percent are possible. Overnight RH values recover to above 70
percent tonight and Tuesday night. Isolated storms may be
possible across the far south on Tuesday, with better chances on
Wednesday and Thursday. 20ft winds will be from the northwest
today and north on Tuesday, at less than 8 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     96  66  97  68 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    95  68  96  70 /  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  97  73  99  74 /  20   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  97  72  99  73 /  20   0   0  10
Calera      97  72 100  72 /  30   0   0   0
Auburn      96  72  96  72 /  30   0  10   0
Montgomery  96  73  98  72 /  40   0  10  10
Troy        95  72  98  71 /  40   0  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32/Davis
AVIATION...16