261
FXUS64 KBMX 310755
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
255 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

Currently we have a ridge in place across the area. This ridge is
holding firm as an approaching MCS is beginning to weaken in
intensity. At this time it does not appear that the MCS will be able
to penetrate the ridge, but an outflow from the northern edge of the
associated MCV will slide across the western edge of the state
through the morning and could provide a brief shower or two. By this
afternoon a second MCS will be approaching the area as well. We
will likely see the outflow with it and perhaps some interaction
with the outflow from the first boundary. This may result in a few
showers/storms across the western third of the area this afternoon.
A third MCS will develop this afternoon to our west and make it into
MS tonight. Models continue to dissipate it through sunrise, but it
should leave an outflow boundary across the southwestern portions of
the area.

On Saturday, this boundary, in association with an approaching
trough that will displace the ridge to the east, will result in a
fairly good coverage of showers and storms. By Saturday afternoon,
Pwats should increase to around 1.8 - 2.0 across the area along with
MU CAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. This environment will be one that
will support multicell storms and could result in some downburst
clusters with strong enough updrafts. Right now the consensus of the
models support a higher probability of impacts across the southern
half of the area, but any storm that gets going in the afternoon
would have the potential for a downburst, resulting in strong to
marginally severe storms. With the fact that these cells should be
water loaded, hail should not be a big concern, making wind and
localized flooding the greatest concern. Will highlight the main
threats from Noon to 9 PM, but will need to monitor a potential MCS
in northern MS, to see if any impacts would be felt if it does
develop Saturday afternoon. Given the fact that this would be the
fourth MCS and conditional on the placement of the others, will
forego any mention of severe storms after early Saturday evening for
now.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

There`s still quite a bit of leftover moisture in place as the Ohio
Valley shortwave trough exits the area to the northeast, and another
weaker wave approaches from the west. High POPs are still indicated
as we head into Sunday. Beyond that, synoptic scale forcing
features are quite subtle, and daily POPs will mainly be driven by
mesoscale processes and diurnal heating. Upper level ridging is
forecast to take place out west, and that will eventually put us
in the northwest flow regime by the middle to end of next week.
That should keep temperatures in check during this time frame.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024

Mainly mid and upper level cloudiness through the period. Winds
become light and variable to calm through sunrise and east
southeast 5-10 kts through the afternoon. There could be a few
showers around TCL this afternoon and then again by 3 to 6z, but
chances are too low to mention at this time. Better rain chances
outside of this time frame for TCL.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated rain chances exist through this evening, with most of
the area remaining dry. Areas in the west will see increasing rain
coverage by sunrise on Saturday. Minimum RH values in the 38 to
48 percent range are expected this afternoon, with 20 ft
southeasterly winds at 6-8mph. Better rain chances arrive on
Saturday along with increased RH values and heavy rain, especially
in the south. 20 ft winds becoming southerly but remaining less
than 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  64  82  64 /  10  10  40  60
Anniston    87  65  83  65 /  10  10  40  60
Birmingham  88  68  82  67 /  10  20  60  60
Tuscaloosa  88  68  81  67 /  20  40  80  60
Calera      87  67  81  67 /  10  20  60  60
Auburn      86  66  81  66 /  10  10  30  40
Montgomery  89  68  84  67 /  10  10  50  40
Troy        89  68  85  67 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...16