162
FXUS64 KBMX 251104
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
604 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024

A quiet but warm overnight period is ongoing across the Deep South
with the remnant surface boundary currently across southern
portions of our county warning area. Slightly drier air at the
surface currently exists north of the boundary, with lower 60s
dewpoints across far northeast counties. Meanwhile, very muggy
surface conditions exist farther to the south, with mid 70s
dewpoints observed at Demopolis and Troy. With the slightly drier
air in place across the north, we`ll see temperatures drop down
into the mid and upper 60s, while low to mid 70s are likely at
sunrise across the U.S. 80 and I-85 corridors.

Dry northerly flow will exist across much of the atmospheric
profile during the day today, which will also cause our daytime
temperatures to easily rise into the upper 90s to near 100
degrees. The only thing saving us from having to issue heat
advisories is the drier northeasterly flow, which will mix
dewpoints down into the upper 50s to lower 60s during the peak
heating of the afternoon. However, heat indices are still expected
to rise into the 100 to 103 degree range across far western
counties where low level moisture is a tad higher.

Following another warm and mostly clear night tonight, 500mb flow
will become northwesterly during the day on Wednesday as the upper
ridge centers over the desert southwest. An upper level shortwave
trough is expected to move southeast through the Great Lakes
states with the trough axis stretching southward into Kentucky and
western Tennessee. Another 500mb vort max is expected to move
towards our area by Wednesday afternoon, which will help to
develop showers and storms to our west and northwest perhaps in
the form of an MCS. Areas west of I-65 currently have the best
chance of seeing thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon
and into the evening hours. Dry air across eastern Alabama should
limit development in those areas, but guidance is indicating a
fairly good chance of low level moisture persisting across the
west. CAMs this morning are indicating a good chance of scattered
to perhaps numerous storms in the west and northwest, some of
which could be strong to severe at times. We`ll have plenty of dry
air aloft to work with, so if we can get enough lift from
mesoscale boundaries or an MCS we may need to keep an eye on
severe development as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 90s.
Gusty microburst-type winds will likely be the main
hazard. Effective northwesterly shear could also keep some
updrafts going a bit longer as well. We`ll continue to keep an eye
on mesoscale trends to better determine potential hazards.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024

Key message:

- Hot conditions return Friday through the rest of the period,
  with increasing humidity levels. Forecast heat indices are near
  105 degrees Friday and Saturday, increasing to 105 to 110
  degrees Sunday and Monday.

At least scattered showers and storms will continue Wednesday
night along convective outflows as a shortwave trough moves into
the area. This shortwave will become more positively tilted on
Thursday as ridging begins to build back eastward towards the
Lower Mississippi Valley. The progression of the trough and the
drier air aloft moving in aloft behind it seem to have slowed
slightly. The shortwave aloft and a trough at the surface should
trigger scattered showers and storms across at least the southeast
half of the area. The convection and associated cloudcover should
keep highs generally in the lower 90s, but it will be more humid
than recent days.

Strong subtropical ridging builds back over the area Friday and
Saturday. This time higher PWATs will remain over the area meaning
there will still be chances for scattered diurnal convection,
though probably not enough coverage to have any widespread impacts
on temperatures. Highs will be climbing back into the mid 90s and
dew points will be higher than they have been recently, meaning
heat indices will be around 105. The ridge retrogrades slightly
Sunday and Monday, putting Central Alabama under northwest flow
aloft. A front will attempt to approach the area, but the only
effect will actually be to increase dew points as moisture pools
south of the front. This will cause heat indices to increase to
the 105-110 range. Scattered showers and storms will remain
possible, potentially aided by the boundary to our north and weak
impulses rotating around the ridge.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2024

Outside of some patchy fog near the Alabama River basin near KMGM
in the near term this morning, VFR conditions and mostly clear
skies are expected through the forecast period. Light northerly
surface winds are expected through this afternoon.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot conditions continue today with RH values dropping into the 25
to 35 percent range. A couple spots in East Alabama may drop
below 25 percent but winds will be light. Moisture begins to
increase from the west on Wednesday, but RH values in East Alabama
will still drop into the 28 to 35 percent range. Rain-free
conditions are expected today, with chances for showers and storms
returning from the west on Wednesday. Scattered, mainly afternoon
and evening showers and storms are expected Thursday into the
weekend, with the highest coverage in the southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     97  68  99  70 /   0   0  20  40
Anniston    96  70  98  72 /   0   0  20  30
Birmingham  99  74  99  73 /   0   0  30  40
Tuscaloosa 100  73  96  72 /   0   0  40  50
Calera     100  72  99  73 /   0   0  30  40
Auburn      96  73  97  74 /   0   0  20  20
Montgomery  99  71  99  72 /   0   0  30  40
Troy        99  71  99  72 /   0   0  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...56/GDG