Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
034 FXUS64 KBMX 240744 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 244 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2024 A line of isolated to scattered showers with perhaps a storm or two is slowly drifting to the south. As of Midnight the line is now along the northern edge of Alabama. Look for this thin line to slowly make it through Birmingham by sunrise and continue south to Montgomery by 8 to 9 AM. The trends for today will be complicated as the north will warm up quite a bit today behind the line, but with drier dewpoints. Areas south of I-85 will warm up early then fall some with the clouds and rain by mid-day. There may be a warm up again late afternoon, just before sunset, so highs may be late here. Areas between I-20 and I-85 will see a slower start to the day, but will still warm up nicely by the afternoon. Any rain should be done by sunset. While there could be a few isolated spots of 105F heat indices, the widespread concern is not expected today. Fair weather tonight, with lows dropping into the mid 60s to low 70s. Model guidance continues to trend slightly lower with dewpoints on Tuesday, as drier air arrives behind the weak front that settles to our south. This will keep heat indices below 105F despite temperatures in the mid 90s to 100F. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 244 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2024 Key messages: - Rain chances have decreased somewhat and high temperatures have increased on Wednesday, but scattered showers and storms are still expected with some strong storms with gusty winds possible especially in West Alabama. - Heat indices at or above 105 degrees will be possible Friday through the weekend. Height falls will take place on Wednesday as one shortwave moves through the Great Lakes and a weaker shortwave in northwest flow aloft moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Due to the stubborn dry air mass over our area, the higher rain/MCS chances continue to trend westward, even west of our forecast area. Still, given the shortwave and height falls and increasing moisture over West Alabama, at least scattered showers and storms are expected with higher coverage possible if any cold pools can organize. Temperatures have trended upward as well, but with the lower dew points expect heat indices to remain below 105 on Wednesday. Shear and mid-level lapse rates will be weak, with instability dropping off as you go eastward into the dry air. But given the dry air aloft and hot temperatures at the surface, some strong storms with gusty winds/microbursts will be possible if the storms can get going and cold pools can form. Will monitor the mesoscale trends to see if any isolated severe storms can develop. A positively tilted trough will extend from the Carolinas southwestward to the Florida Panhandle on Thursday, while ridging begins to build back to the east across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Dry air aloft will be advecting in from the northwest as a surface frontal boundary washes out. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible especially in our southeast counties closer to the better moisture. Highs will "only" be in the middle 90s in most locations. Strong subtropical ridging builds back in over the Southeast Friday through the weekend. This will result in hot temperatures continuing. Most areas remain dry Friday, but PWATs increase over the weekend with weak low-level southerly flow. This means that unlike the previous ridge there will be some potential for diurnal convection which could impact highs in some spots. Also, this will result in higher dew points meaning there will be increasing chances for heat indices at or above 105 degrees. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2024 A line of isolated to scattered showers with perhaps a storm or two is slowly drifting to the south. As of 5z the line is now along the northern edge of Alabama. Look for VCSH as early as 8z in the northern 5 sites. Added in a tempo for 2 hours at these sites as well. Opted to leave thunder out of the TAFs as the percentages are below 20 percent. MGM will see this line after 12z and TOI after 15z. Winds will be out of the west to northwest later today behind this line at 6 to 8 kts. Outside of the rain chances, VFR conditions are expected. Will amend if a TS becomes more probable. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered showers and a storm or two will be possible across the southern half of the area. Drier air arrives behind the front. For today, minimum RH values will range from 30-40 percent for much of the area, and 40-45 percent across the southern third of the area. On Tuesday, minimum RH values of 24-35 percent are possible. Overnight RH values recover to above 70 percent tonight and Tuesday night. Isolated storms may be possible across the far south on Tuesday, with better chances on Wednesday and Thursday. 20ft winds will be from the northwest today and north on Tuesday, at less than 8 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 96 66 97 68 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 95 68 96 70 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 97 73 99 74 / 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 97 72 99 73 / 20 0 0 10 Calera 97 72 100 72 / 30 0 0 0 Auburn 96 72 96 72 / 30 0 10 0 Montgomery 96 73 98 72 / 40 0 10 10 Troy 95 72 98 71 / 40 0 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....32/Davis AVIATION...16