347
FXUS64 KBMX 032022
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
322 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

Scattered convection has developed along an outflow boundary in
eastern MS, with thunderstorms expected to meander into western
Alabama through the afternoon. CAMs are not handling this
convection well, so confidence remains low on extent of
development this afternoon. Enough instability is over the state
for diurnal convection this afternoon, with a greater
concentration in the central and western portions of the state
where instability is higher. PW values are max for this time of
year so any stronger shower and thunderstorm will produce high
rain rates.

Overnight, an area of thunderstorms is expected to move into
western Alabama in the early morning hours, and lasting through
the early morning. Confidence is low on timing and coverage, but
any activity will produce high rain rates and lightning. Diurnal
activity will be quick to develop by mid day as plenty of
moisture and instability remains over the state. A few areas in
the east and south could see fog development in the early morning.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

A shortwave moving across the area Wednesday should bring chances
for showers and storms to Central Alabama. Similar to the last
forecast cycle, the highest PoPs look to remain across the northern
half of the state. Have made minimal adjustments to PoPs but not
wholesale changes. The frontal passage Thursday should see the
highest rain chances in the central and southeastern counties.
Minimal coverage is expected in the southeast again Friday
afternoon, with much of the area remaining dry. Saturday looks dry
as well before rain and storm chances return again by Sunday
afternoon. The temperature department looks steady-state, as is
typical for this time of year: highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
each day and lows largely in the 60s each night. Friday night lows
will likely dip into the upper 50s in northern and northeastern
pockets behind the front.

12

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

A weak upper level low pressure system will slide into the
southeastern CONUS Wednesday through Thursday as the more amplified
ridge remains across the the southwestern CONUS. This sets up a
northwesterly flow regime for Central AL. At least 2 weak shortwaves
will likely move through leading to increased rain and thunderstorm
chances; however, the timing and track of these shortwaves has shown
significant variability in model guidance each day. Initially, the
first wave on Wednesday seems to stay to our north for the most
part, but there`s some guidance that brings it further south, so
while I believe most of the area could see at least scattered
showers and storms on Wednesday, the better coverage and higher
confidence of showers and storms remains generally north of I-20.
Rain chances increase again Thursday into early Friday as a frontal
boundary pushes southward through the area. This boundary should be
south of our area during the day Friday leading to decreasing rain
chances and drier weather for at least the first part of the
weekend. However, guidance suggests another shortwave could slide
southeastward through the main trough again late Saturday through
Sunday leading to more showers and thunderstorms. Details on exact
timing of these waves will likely change in the coming days so the
forecast will most likely change.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

VFR conditions will be present through much of the day, with a few
areas of MVFR ceilings moving through the state. Have included a
TEMPO for this right now and will amend if needed. Scattered
thunderstorms are around the area and with uncertainty in timing
and coverage, have left mention of any activity out of prevailing
TAF right now. Low level moisture will be high in the morning,
with IFR ceilings expected to develop and last through the rest of
the TAF period at every TAF site except KMGM and KTOI.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and humid air mass will persist through at least Thursday
before a frontal boundary pushes into the region late in the week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
tomorrow before becoming more widespread across the north on
Wednesday. Generally light southerly flow is expected outside any
thunderstorm activity through Tuesday night, with southerly 20ft
winds up to 5-7 mph. Afternoon min RH values Saturday may dip below
the 35-40 percent range, with drier northerly flow in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  82  67  88 /  40  70  40  70
Anniston    68  83  68  88 /  30  70  40  60
Birmingham  69  84  70  89 /  40  70  40  60
Tuscaloosa  69  86  71  89 /  30  60  30  60
Calera      69  84  70  88 /  30  60  30  60
Auburn      69  85  69  87 /  30  50  30  40
Montgomery  70  85  70  90 /  30  60  20  50
Troy        69  86  68  91 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...24