249
FXUS64 KBMX 192050
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
350 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024

This afternoon.

Abnormally strong mid-level ridging remained centered over the
Mid-Atlantic Region at midday, while an upper trough was
identified by multispectral satellite imagery over the Bahamas and
South Florida. The forecast area is positioned between strong
surface high pressure centered off the Northeast Seaboard and
Tropical Storm Alberto that was over the far Southwest Gulf of
Mexico moving west toward Northeast Mexico.

Partly cloudy skies are forecast across the area this afternoon
with thicker clouds across the far south and southwest. There is a
plume of deep-layer moisture over portions of southwest counties
per RAP 13 km analysis where precipitable water values are over
1.6 inches and this is where low PoPs less than 20 percent were
introduced for the duration of the afternoon. Light echoes on
radar are generally moving northeast within this corridor and will
continue through early evening. Otherwise, winds will generally
be from the east breezy at times from 6-12 mph due to the tighter
surface pressure gradient. High temperatures will range from the
upper 80s far north and in the higher terrain east to the low 90s
south, west and central.

Tonight.

The anomalous upper ridge will become more elongated overnight,
extending from off the Mid-Atlantic Coast southwest to over the
Mid-South Region while the mid to upper low remains over the
Bahamas and South Florida. Surface high pressure will become
centered across the Mid-Atlantic and will extend southwest down
the spine of the Appalachian Mountains while Alberto approaches
the Northeast Coast of Mexico.

Clouds will decrease overnight with fair and dry conditions
overnight. Winds will relax and the pressure gradient loosens and
with the loss of vertical mixing with east winds from 3-6 mph.
Lows will range from the upper 60s east and far north to the lower
70s southwest and central.

Friday.

Very strong ridging will continue to migrate southwest on
Thursday, extending from over the Mid-Atlantic Region southwest to
over the ArkLaTex region. Surface high pressure will remain
centered to our northeast.

Expect partly cloudy skies Friday with winds from the east at
5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from near 90 far north and
in the higher elevations east to the low and mid 90s south, west
and central.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024

Made some refinements to rain chances in the extended as the ridge
retreats back to the west. Capped pops at 50 percent given
uncertainty with timing of upper level impulses in
westerly/northwesterly flow and whether activity will be purely
diurnally driven.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2024

The center of a 596 dam ridge at 500 mb will be centered over
Tennessee on Friday on its southwestward course from the Mid-
Atlantic states. The proximity of the ridge and high heights along
with a weakening of cooler easterly flow, should correspond with a
nudge upward in temperatures. Much of the area should see mid 90s
on Friday and Saturday with a couple of spots possibly reaching
the upper 90s. On Sunday the ridge should retreat westward and
amplify, resulting in the development of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. As this occurs, westerly low-level flow will promote
similar temperatures despite height falls.

As enhanced moisture arrives with southeasterly flow on Saturday
and remains in place on Sunday, isolated or scattered showers and
storms will return for areas mainly along and south of Interstate
20. Rain chances could continue to increase on Monday and Tuesday
as height falls continue across the region.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Scattered to
broken clouds are expected this afternoon with thicker clouds
south in the mid to upper levels. Expect scattered clouds
overnight followed by few to scattered clouds tomorrow with more
clouds to the southwest. There could be a passing shower or storm
this afternoon southwest but this potential is away from any
terminal.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free conditions will persist through Friday morning as
easterly winds bring drier air to the region. There is an isolated
chance of a thunderstorm Friday afternoon across the extreme
southeast, but most of the area will remain dry through Saturday
morning. Afternoon RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent
range each day through Saturday. Easterly 20 ft winds of 5 to 10
mph are expected each day through Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    69  92  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  72  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  72  94  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      71  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      69  91  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  70  93  69  94 /   0  10   0  10
Troy        69  92  68  93 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05