379
FXUS64 KBMX 150606
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
106 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 814 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024

A convergence zone in the lower levels remains aligned northwest
to southeast. This axis was generally east of I-65 and north of
I-22 early this evening. This zone was north of a surface front
and weak low pressure south of Montgomery. The showers depicted on
radar did not have excessive rain rates at the moment, but some
locations were receiving .3-.6 inches of rain in the past hour.
Precipitable Water values were still high ranging from near 2
inches northeast to 1.7 inches southwest. Low level winds are
forecast to increase overnight out of the east and expect the
rain to continue along the convergent axis. This axis will also
drift back to the west. Even though instability and shear are
much lower than the past few days, rain has soaked into the ground
and lowered the flash flood guidance. If heavier rain can develop
and move over the areas that received heavy rain, flooding may
become a risk overnight. Therefore, will keep the Flash Flood
Watch going overnight. Rain chances are handled well as is much of
the forecast. Overnight lows will be slightly cooler than last
night mainly between 65 and 70 degrees. More showers/storms on
Sunday with the focus shifted to the west. Highs mainly in the
70s.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024

The wet pattern continues for the short term with a low pressure
and associated boundary that will linger along the coast with
moisture continuing to stream up and around it into C AL. In the
upper levels, an upper low is still present across the SE US but
will continue to slowly weaken through Sunday. Our end result
will be that of more showers expected for tonight into Sunday. QPF
amounts continue to be a little elevated for tonight (additional
0.25-1.25 inch), so I will keep the flood watch going through 12z
Sunday. However, expected amounts for Sunday during the day look
to start to taper down to around 0.25-0.75 inch. Will forgo
expanding the watch at this time. With elevated pops and lots of
cloud cover, our diurnal range will not be great with lows in the
60s tonight and highs in the 70s for Sunday.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024

The remnant surface to 500 mb low associated with Francine, will
continue to drift southwestward over Mississippi on Sunday night
and Monday. In addition, models are indicating the potential for a
subtropical or tropical system near the South Carolina coast.
With our area in between both systems, the corridor of highest
rain chances will gradually shift southwestward as a surface ridge
axis moves in from the east. By Tuesday, a drier airmass to our
north should wrap around the low over the Carolinas, putting an
end to the possibility of rain across the forecast area, except
across our far southern counties. The dry conditions should
continue through Friday as northerly flow persists on the western
side of a cutoff 500 mb trough.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024

A band of showers remains oriented northwest to southeast through
the area tonight, and expect a gradual increase in coverage. This
convergence zone will slowly move westward overnight and
tomorrow, with the greatest coverage of showers across western
areas through Sunday evening. Easterly winds at 8-10kts will
occasionally gust to 20kts, especially within heavier showers.
Radar trends indicate low chances of thunder, and have limited TS
to after 15Z Sunday.

A mix of VFR and MVFR cigs to start the period will trend to MVFR
and IFR by sunrise. Improvement to MVFR is expected after 15Z,
with VFR cigs at most terminals by 06/00Z.

NOTE: NIL TAF continues for KANB until further notice due to large
comms issue and missing obs.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain showers and moist conditions will continue for much of the
area on Sunday before gradually shifting toward our southern
counties on Monday. 20 foot winds will be from the east at 6 to 10
mph. Dry conditions will make a return Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     79  65  83  59 /  30  20  20  10
Anniston    79  66  83  62 /  30  20  20  10
Birmingham  77  67  82  64 /  60  30  20  10
Tuscaloosa  78  68  81  65 /  60  50  40  20
Calera      78  68  81  65 /  60  40  30  20
Auburn      77  67  80  64 /  40  30  30  20
Montgomery  79  68  79  67 /  50  50  40  20
Troy        78  68  78  65 /  60  50  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-
Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marion-Montgomery-Pike-
Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...14