Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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963 FXUS64 KBMX 201756 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1254 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2024 High pressure will remain over the area through the short term. Easterly to southeasterly flow today will allow for an area of higher PW values to move across the far southeastern counties with light rain possible through the afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather and increasing temps will be present through the short term. Heat indices will be slightly above the temperatures with mid to upper 90s expected Friday afternoon. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 359 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2024 A ridge at 500 mb will be located over Alabama on Saturday with weak flow throughout the column. With the absence of slightly cooler easterly flow, the airmass will begin to cook. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s in most areas Saturday afternoon. On Sunday the ridge should retreat westward and amplify, resulting in the development of a trough over the eastern CONUS. Our area will be on the edge of the trough under continental northwesterly flow at 500mb, with westerly low-level flow favoring slightly hotter conditions. Some locations are expected to reach the upper 90s for highs on Sunday. Similar temperatures could continue into Monday and Tuesday as the hot continental flow continues. Weak southeasterly flow should bring an increase in moisture to our southern and eastern counties on Saturday, and this moisture should remain in place on Sunday. Isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms appear possible south of Interstate 20 on both days. Gradual height falls and moistening across the region will result in an uptrend in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, an abundance of moisture and continued height falls, should result in fairly widespread convection and a reduction in temperatures. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2024 Southeasterly flow is bringing an area of high moisture to mainly KMGM and KTOI with pockets of MVFR ceilings and light rain possible through the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail overnight and Friday with high pressure remaining over the area. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain-free conditions will persist through Friday as easterly winds reinforce a dry airmass. 20 foot winds of 5 to 8 mph are expected on those days before coming very light on Saturday. Afternoon RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent each day through Saturday. A slight increase on moisture could yield a few isolated showers and storms south of Interstate 20. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 66 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 67 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 20 Birmingham 70 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 70 94 71 96 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 70 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 69 92 73 91 / 0 0 0 30 Montgomery 69 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 30 Troy 67 93 70 94 / 0 0 10 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...24