Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
194 FXUS64 KBMX 200526 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1226 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 632 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024 Deep-layer easterly flow will persist through Thursday, driven by ridging centered over the Mid-Atlantic and Tropical Storm Alberto over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. With no notable features embedded within the flow pattern, fair weather is expected. 89^GSatterwhite && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024 Made some refinements to rain chances in the extended as the ridge retreats back to the west. Capped pops at 50 percent given uncertainty with timing of upper level impulses in westerly/northwesterly flow and whether activity will be purely diurnally driven. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 357 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2024 The center of a 596 dam ridge at 500 mb will be centered over Tennessee on Friday on its southwestward course from the Mid- Atlantic states. The proximity of the ridge and high heights along with a weakening of cooler easterly flow, should correspond with a nudge upward in temperatures. Much of the area should see mid 90s on Friday and Saturday with a couple of spots possibly reaching the upper 90s. On Sunday the ridge should retreat westward and amplify, resulting in the development of a trough over the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, westerly low-level flow will promote similar temperatures despite height falls. As enhanced moisture arrives with southeasterly flow on Saturday and remains in place on Sunday, isolated or scattered showers and storms will return for areas mainly along and south of Interstate 20. Rain chances could continue to increase on Monday and Tuesday as height falls continue across the region. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2024 Will continue with VFR forecast through the next 24 hours. Lower than normal dewpoints and lack of any sustained forcing will keep daily convection suppressed and overnight visibilities above 6SM. Basically a wind speed forecast after that, with light to calm conditions at night and around 8-10 kts (perhaps a bit higher at MGM and TOI) during the daylight hours. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain-free conditions will persist through Friday morning as easterly winds bring drier air to the region. There is an isolated chance of a thunderstorm Friday afternoon across the extreme southeast, but most of the area will remain dry through Saturday morning. Afternoon RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent range each day through Saturday. Easterly 20 ft winds of 5 to 10 mph are expected each day through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 92 66 94 68 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 91 68 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 93 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 92 71 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 93 70 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 90 69 91 72 / 0 0 10 10 Montgomery 92 69 94 72 / 0 0 10 10 Troy 91 68 93 71 / 10 0 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite LONG TERM....14 AVIATION.../61/