Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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628 FXUS64 KBMX 161753 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2024 Mostly rain-free conditions are ongoing across much of Central Alabama today, thanks to some drier air advecting in from the northeast both at the surface and at the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Mostly sunny skies aside from some scattered cu is being observed across eastern and northeastern counties, where highs today should be able to reach into the mid 80s. Meanwhile, the remnant low of what`s left of Francine continues to slowly move westward across Louisiana. A narrow corridor of showers continues to persist thanks to some lingering isentropic lift across Sumter and Marengo Counties this afternoon, along with broken mid-level clouds present across the southwestern half of Central Alabama. As drier air continues to filter into the region, clouds are expected to gradually decrease by this afternoon and evening, with rain chances also coming to an end. Highs are currently on track for the most part, but have been raised a few degrees where clouds have dissipated a bit earlier than expected. Highs should reach close to 80 degrees in the far southwest counties with mid to upper 80s expected elsewhere. Clouds are expected to mostly clear out overnight tonight, with temperatures dropping down into 60s areawide. As the temperatures drop toward the dewpoint with moist ground conditions and mostly calm winds, patchy fog will likely form during the early morning hours on Tuesday. There are still some uncertainties in terms of how low visibilities may get, but guidance trends are indicating that the boundary layer will likely decouple. We`ve added in at least patchy fog to the forecast to trend in that direction, and that may need to be updated as we go into the evening hours. Going into the day on Tuesday, an overall weakness in the 500mb pattern will emerge over much of the region, stretching from the central Gulf Coast northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic states. The potential tropical cyclone located just off the South Carolina coast will move inland to the northwest and become cut off from the main upper level flow. As the center of the low moves over the heart of the Smoky Mountains, we`ll stay on the dry southwest side of the system. The only mention of PoPs will be across the extreme southern counties as as warm front tries to lift northward from the Gulf Coast. The front should eventually stall across southern Alabama as it encounters northerly to northwesterly surface flow on the west side of the closed low over the Smokies. Dewpoints should be fairly comfortable with the northerly flow Tuesday afternoon in the 60s and even upper 50s across the far northeast counties. High temperatures with plenty of sunshine should top out in the mid to upper 80s areawide. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 301 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2024 A frontal boundary will push southward through Central AL Tuesday night through Wednesday as the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone become absorbed with the deeper trough across the Eastern US. The boundary could lead to some lower rain chances across our southernmost counties Wednesday afternoon, but most of the rain/thunderstorm activity should remain to our south. A blocking pattern persists Thursday through the end of the week with little meaningful change in our sensible weather. Synoptically, guidance suggests the trough over the Eastern US develops into a cut- off upper level low and may retrograde southwestward over the Coastal Carolinas. If this takes place, we could have a weak backdoor cold front push east to west across Central AL next weekend. Effectively, however, this really only leads to daytime highs going from the upper 80s Wed through Friday to the upper 70s to mid 80s by Sunday. The drier air mass in place with the northerly flow should keep rain chances very low (no mention of measurable rainfall in the forecast) through the weekend. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2024 Mostly VFR conditions aside from higher-end MVFR ceilings can be expected through the afternoon across the terminals. Easterly winds will continue, prevailing around 10 knots with a few gusts over 15 knots through 21z. Clouds are expected to gradually decrease by this evening with mostly clear skies in the forecast. We`ll be watching for the potential for fog development overnight tonight with clear skies and calm winds. We`ve gone ahead and added in a TEMPO for reduced vis between 09z and 12z Tuesday morning for a few terminals, and we`ll need to monitor the latest guidance and observation trends during the evening for potential TAF amendments. VFR conditions can be expected through 18z Tuesday. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Lower rain chances will persist across the southern and southwestern portions of Central AL today through Tuesday. Drier conditions with northerly flow is expected for the second half of the week. Min RHs will remain generally at or above 50% through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 86 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 84 62 86 62 / 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 85 64 86 62 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 82 65 87 63 / 30 10 0 0 Calera 85 65 87 65 / 20 0 0 0 Auburn 82 64 85 66 / 10 0 10 0 Montgomery 82 66 87 67 / 20 10 10 0 Troy 83 65 85 67 / 20 10 20 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56/GDG LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...56/GDG