Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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533 FXUS64 KBMX 141134 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 634 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 257 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2024 A strong upper level ridge centered over western TX shifts eastward across the southern Plains today and settles over the Deep South Saturday. With increasing heights and low level temperatures across Central Alabama, expect temperatures to continue to warm today and tomorrow to near record values. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s, and then in the mid to upper 90s on Saturday. A few locations could reach 100F Saturday afternoon. Not much relief will be had tonight, as overnight temperatures remain in the 70s for most of the area. Heat indices will reach 105F for a few locations across the west and south Saturday afternoon, and a Heat Advisory will likely be needed. 14 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 257 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2024 A 592 dm ridge that will be squarely over Central Alabama on Saturday will begin shifting east by Sunday. In accordance, highs Sunday have trended a couple degrees lower than Saturday. Heat index values still look to be in the 100-103F range Sunday, which is just short of advisory criteria. With lows nearly each night during the forecast period remaining in the low to mid 70s, little relief will be provided overnight. Even though heat index values may not be above 105F each afternoon, a prolonged period of temperatures above 74-75F can lead to some health effects. This will require more caution than usual for heat-sensitive groups or those with prolonged outdoor activities over the weekend and early week. There is a chance for some thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon, currently forecast over southern and eastern counties. Uncertainly in extent of rain and cloud cover may affect forecast highs for Sunday. Monday afternoon will feature an area-wide chance for thunderstorm activity, along with a slight chance in the south and west on Tuesday. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s both days. There is a signal that highs could trend back toward the mid to upper 90s by late next week. 12 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2024 Localized valley fog has developed this morning, with MVFR vis impacting TOI. Fog will mix out quickly this morning, with vis improving by 13Z. VFR conditions expected thereafter, with clear skies and light and variable winds at less than 5kts. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are expected Friday through Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon, mainly across southern and eastern areas. 20-foot winds should average less than 7 mph with directional variability through Monday morning. Afternoon min RH values are expected to drop into the 30-40 percent today and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 95 69 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 95 70 97 72 / 10 0 10 0 Birmingham 96 73 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 97 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 96 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 95 74 96 75 / 10 10 10 0 Montgomery 97 73 98 75 / 0 0 10 0 Troy 97 72 98 72 / 0 0 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...14