Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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299 FXUS64 KBMX 111918 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 218 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 136 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024 This afternoon. Longwave troughing was over much of the Eastern Seaboard while amplified ridging was over the Lower and Middle Mississippi River Valley Region. A stationary front was draped from west to east roughly along the Northern Gulf Coast while expansive surface high pressure extended from Michigan south into Tennessee. Expect mostly sunny skies today with only some high-level clouds over the area. Winds will be from the north from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from around 80 far northeast to the low 90s far southeast. Tonight. Broad ridging aloft will be positioned over the Mid Mississippi River Valley Region overnight while the stationary front remains to our south and surface high pressure extends from Upstate New York southwest into the Central Plains. Look for mostly clear skies tonight. Some brief patchy fog may develop near water features before sunrise on Wednesday. Winds will be from the north from 2-5 mph. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s far southeast. Wednesday. A weakness in the mid-levels will move southeast over the Lower Mississippi River Valley during the day Wednesday that will support a surface low to develop along the stationary front to our south. This feature will remain to our south but will move eastward through the day generally paralleling the Interstate 10 corridor. Skies will range from mostly sunny northwest to partly cloudy southeast on Wednesday. There will be a very small chance for a few showers or a stray storm to develop across our east and southeast counties in association with the surface low to our southeast during the afternoon, but residual dry air aloft looks to be a major limiting factor. I did draw in some PoPs but kept them below 10 percent based upon current thinking that dry conditions will likely prevail. Winds will become more east through the day with speeds from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will increase areawide, ranging from the upper 80s far northwest to the low 90s south. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024 As an upper-level ridge axis moves across the Gulf Coast region, high temperatures are expected to run 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals, in the middle to upper 90s. Within the upper end of that range, highs would end up in record territory during the Friday to Sunday time frame. Might a couple communities hit 100? Daytime low-level mixing looks to keep dew points from being too high, averaging in the 60s during the late morning to afternoon, so that will keep it from feeling excessively muggy, though still noticeable. Moisture content should be on the increase next week and we may get in on some shower/storm chances, in part pending the evolution of a Gulf area of low pressure, though nothing too meaningful for our area at this juncture. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Some high clouds are moving northeast over the area, otherwise conditions are dry with low level winds from the north. Winds will be light overnight with low potential for some brief patchy fog near water features before sunrise on Wednesday. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... No rain is expected through the week as a high pressure system advances upon the region. RHs are forecast to remain above critical thresholds. 20-foot winds will be from the north today, with some directional variability across central Alabama on Wednesday and Thursday between northeast to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 58 89 62 92 / 0 10 0 0 Anniston 59 90 65 92 / 0 10 0 10 Birmingham 61 91 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 59 90 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 60 90 67 94 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 64 90 70 91 / 0 10 0 10 Montgomery 62 91 68 94 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 63 93 68 94 / 0 10 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...05