Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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163 FXUS64 KBMX 220900 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024 Upper-air features relevant to our forecast include a trough extending from the central Plains to the Desert Southwest, and ridge centered near the TX/LA Gulf Coast. Anticylonic flow associated with the ridge should continue to suppress diurnal convection across our area this afternoon. Temperatures will once again top out in the lower 90s for most locations. Signs of a pattern change are evident for Monday as the trough and ridge shift eastward. Height falls should begin over North Alabama, but stronger 500 mb will remain well to the north. As the ridge relents, isolated convection appears possible just north of our counties that border WFO Huntsville. 87/Grantham && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024 Upper level ridge along the Gulf coast will help to keep conditions dry in central Alabama through at least Monday night. By Tuesday, the ridge is flattened a bit by an upper trough moving across the Ohio valley, which helps push a surface front onto our doorstep to the northwest. By the time the front gets here, low level convergence associated with it is rather week. It could produce a few showers or even a thunderstorm or two, but the main impact from this first trough/front may likely just end up being more clouds and a moderation of temperatures. However, that lead shortwave is quickly followed up by a more substantial trough that digs southward into the midwest/midsouth region. It is with this deepening trough that the global models start to diverge. And those model differences (in timing, placement, and strength) remain important in determining whether or not any potential tropical system entering the Gulf would have direct, peripheral, borderline, or null impacts for us here in central Alabama. Therefore, we shall keep using model blends to keep from focusing on any particular run of any particular model, which will in turn allow us to keep forecast update options open (in either direction) as we get into the end of the week into next weekend. /61/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 113 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024 No impacts are expected to the TAF sites through the next 24 hours. VFR conditions will continue with variable or westerly winds of 6 knots or less. 87/Grantham && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances will remain near zero through Monday as high pressure prevails. With temperatures in the 90s and a modestly dry airmass in place, minimum RH values should range from 35 to 50 percent through Monday. 20 foot winds will be westerly or variable at less than 7 mph. An increase in moisture is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 67 92 68 / 0 0 10 0 Anniston 93 69 92 70 / 0 0 10 0 Birmingham 93 71 92 71 / 0 0 10 0 Tuscaloosa 94 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 93 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 92 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 94 71 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 92 69 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87/Grantham LONG TERM..../61/ AVIATION...87/Grantham