731
FXUS65 KBOI 160955
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
355 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...An unseasonably
cool upper level trough will remain over the Pacific NW Sunday
and Monday before moving eastward. This will bring breezy west-
northwest winds during the afternoons each day through Monday.
Temperatures will also be 10-20 degrees below normal through
Monday. The bulk of the moisture will be north of the area
today, with scattered showers developing north of a line from
Burns, OR to Boise late this afternoon and continuing overnight
into Monday. The main trough moves overhead on Monday morning,
with the coolest air aloft over the area. This will bring
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon, with light snow showers in the mountains above
5000-6000 feet. Minor snow accumulations above 5000 feet, but
will quickly melt off once the sun rises and warms up the ground
surface, due to the June sun angle. Monday will be the coldest
day of the period, nearly 20 degrees below normal, and also
windy, with northwest winds 20-30 mph and gusts to 45 mph. May
need a wind advisory for the Upper Treasure and Magic Valley
Monday afternoon once forecast confidence increases. The trough
will move eastward on Tuesday, with drier and warmer conditions
expected. Some lingering showers possible over the central ID
mountains Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The upper flow
throughout the long term remains mostly southwesterly,
supporting a warming trend and drier conditions. Precipitation
chances over parts of the West Central Mtns were reduced to <5%
in this forecast as the upper flow is looking a little drier
than previous model runs. Chances may bounce back in future
forecasts if guidance returns to previous moisture levels. The
upper flow is fairly weak, keeping winds mild. Sunday
afternoon/evening will be breezy as a low passes to the north
and the gradient in the flow increases. Temperatures warm from
about normal on Wednesday to 10-15 degrees above normal by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear until Sunday afternoon/evening.
Rain/snow showers move from NW to SE after Sun/22Z through Monday
morning. Greater than 30% chance of precipitation in SE OR and the
west-central ID mtns, while the Snake Plain remains mostly less than
30%. Snow levels 5000-6000 ft MSL. Mountains becoming obscured as
precipitation expands. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt this morning,
increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W
15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR and mostly clear. Rain showers and overcast clouds
developing between Mon/06Z through Mon/12Z. 10-20% chance of rain at
the terminal during this period. Surface winds: NW less than 10 kt,
becoming NW 8-12 kt with gusts to 14-18 kt this
afternoon/evening.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM