222
FXUS65 KBOI 232014
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
214 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...Continued
warming through Wednesday as a Pacific upper ridge moves inland
and through our CWA. High temps Wednesday will be in the mid
80s to lower 90s in the lower valleys, and upper 70s to mid 80s
in the higher valleys and mountains, or about 15 degrees above
normal. Upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska will push a surface
cold front inland over WA and OR Wednesday, then across our
northern and western CWA zones Wednesday night, and south-
central Idaho just before sunrise Thursday. Southwesterly
surface winds ahead of the front will increase to 20-30 mph
with gusts to 40 mph in Harney and Malheur Counties Wednesday
afternoon. A 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms will develop
along the front Wednesday night north of Baker/OR-McCall/ID. The
frontal passage will shift winds to west or northwest, briefly
gusty but not as strong as the southwest winds ahead of the
front.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Dry conditions are set to prevail through the weekend as
ensemble guidance maintains a mean trough over most of the
western US, with stronger westerlies positioned just to the
north. Temperatures will cool down on Thursday to slightly
above seasonal normals behind a mostly dry cold front.
There is an increasing signal (40% chance) for this ridge to
break down Sunday into early next week, earlier than the EPS
ensemble mean fields suggest, with the potential arrival of an
amplified upper trough, which would bring cooler temperatures,
breezier winds, and at least low-end precipitation chances to
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. High clouds will diminish late Monday. Surface
winds: NW 5-15kt with afternoon gusts to 25kt east of KMUO.
Light and variable overnight. Winds at 10kft MSL: North-northeast
at 10- 15kt.

KBOI...VFR. Scattered to broken cirrus. Northwest winds gusting
to 20 kt this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight.
Southeast winds around 10kt by late Tuesday morning.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JR
AVIATION.....JR