780
FXUS65 KBOI 242045
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
245 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...A dry west-
southwest flow aloft through Tuesday (accompanied by dry
condition) transitions to a moist southwesterly flow Tuesday
night through Wednesday. Initially, moisture arrives in the mid
and upper levels, but translates to the lower levels on
Wednesday as the precipitable water peaks at around 1 inch
which is around the 95th percentile. The convective threat
increases with the increase in moisture as any thunderstorms
would be high-based Tuesday night through early Wednesday, with
the potential for heavy rain with the thunderstorms by Wednesday
afternoon. Shower/thunderstorm chances will be generally less
than 30 percent with the best chances over the higher
elevations. Gusty winds develop during the afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front that is associated with a trough over
the PacNW. The front moves through Tuesday night, followed by
drier/stable conditions into Wednesday. Much-above normal
temperatures continue both days with highs around 10 degrees
above normal.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Cooler temperatures (near
seasonal normals) follow the passage of the midweek cold front
Thursday through Friday. Breezy northwest winds are anticipated
on Thursday with lighter winds on Friday. Showers chances will
be confined to the far north (West Central ID Mountains) on
Thursday with dry conditions area-wide on Friday. The cooler
northwest flow becomes southwesterly on Saturday bringing a
return to above-normal temperatures. Models remain in good
agreement with the arrival of the next Pacific trough early next
week for a slight cooling trend and a 15-30 percent chance of
showers, mainly over the higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies. Reduced visibilities from
smoke near a fire in far SW Idaho. Hot temperatures this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon will cause high density
altitudes. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt becoming variable less
than 10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 20-35 kt.

KBOI...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt becoming
variable less than 5 kt overnight.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....MC