Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
097 FXUS65 KBOI 132028 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 228 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Southwest flow aloft could bring just enough moisture out of Nevada for a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms south of Twin Falls through this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail. A pair of `dry` cold fronts, one tonight and another Friday night, will bring a pronounced cooling trend through Saturday as a large low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska moves into the northern Rockies by Saturday. Due to the general eastward track of the low, moisture will remain too far to the north for any appreciable chances of precip, with less than a 20 percent chance of showers in the far north (north of Baker City and McCall) on Saturday. Winds will be gusty at times, especially in south-central Idaho where it will be windy Saturday afternoon. Temperatures cool 5-10 degrees on Friday and another 10-15 degrees on Saturday. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Models remain in good agreement in depicting a low pressure system in the north Pacific that moves into the Pacific Northwest (including our area) early next week. The track of the low will determine the location and amounts of precip, and it is still too early to pin down with any real confidence. Latest guidance favors a track that would bring the highest precip totals to Baker County and central Idaho. Snow levels also lower to around 6500 feet. There is at least a 60 percent chance of greater than an inch of snowfall above 7000 feet in the northern mountains Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will be much cooler with the arrival of a cold front as highs will only be in the 60s across the lower valleys Monday and Tuesday. Monday is also looking quite windy with the passage of the cold front. The system exits midweek followed by drier conditions and a gradual warming trend as highs return to near normal on Thursday. && .AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear. Isolated -TSRA southeast of Owyhee/NV to KTWF 14/22Z through 14/06Z. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt. Gusts 20-30 kt KBKE-KONO-KMUO after 14/06Z as a dry cold front moves through. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 15-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Clear skies. Surface winds: NW 7-13 kt, increasing to 10-15kt after 14/12Z. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Increasing clouds AOA 15 kft MSL Saturday with NW surface winds 10-20kt and afternoon gusts to 30 kt. Broken to overcast clouds AOA 12 kft Sunday. A 30 percent chance of rain and snow showers in SE Oregon and the West Central ID Mountains Sunday night with snow level lowering to 7 kft MSL. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM....BW AVIATION.....LC