798
FXUS65 KBOI 300951 CCA
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Boise ID
344 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...At 3 AM MDT a cold front
could be clearly seen on satellite imagery extending from northern
ID southward along the western ID border, then ssw-ward to near
Reno, NV. The surface cold front was slightly east of the main
cloud band seen on satellite. KCBX radar showed light rain echoes
as far south as central Malheur County but these should retreat
northward when they get into Idaho this morning. Surface winds
with the front have been stronger than forecast by the models.
Around midnight MDT Ontario/OR reported northwest wind 30 mph
with gusts near 45 mph. Around 2 AM MDT Boise reported northwest
20 mph with gusts near 30 mph. Behind the cold front high temps
today will be about ten degrees cooler than yesterday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms (30 to 60 percent areal coverage) will
occur in the central ID mountains, and isolated thunderstorms
(15 to 25 percent areal coverage) will develop this afternoon
near the NV/ID border. Instability in the central ID mountains
looks strong enough for thunderstorm wind gusts up to 50 mph and
small hail. Slightly less instability is forecast near the NV/ID
border. Clearing and cooler in all areas tonight, with temps
holding slightly below normal through Monday as an upper trough
passes through from west to east. Mostly sunny Monday, except
partly cloudy in the central ID mountains. Breezy again from the
west/northwest Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Dry northwest flow will
continue Wednesday and Thursday as our area remains between an
upper level trough over Montana and a strong upper level ridge
centered along the California coast. This will bring dry and
breezy conditions with temperatures a couple degrees above
normal. Forecast confidence decreases Friday through Sunday as
ensembles disagree on the evolution of the pattern. Around 40%
of ensembles amplify the ridge along the coast but keep our area
under a weak trough, keeping temperatures from becoming too
hot. However, the other 60% of ensembles move the ridge inland
and bring the potential for very hot temperatures over the
weekend. The current forecast is a blend between the two
solutions, with lower valleys reaching the upper 90s to around
100 degrees by Saturday and Sunday, but these values are likely
to change as models come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Mid to high clouds with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms today, mainly across the
higher terrain. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will also
drift into the Magic Valley late this afternoon and evening.
Surface winds: W-NW 10- 20 kt with local gusts to 30 kt. Gusts
to 40 kt near thunderstorms. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW
15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Increasing mid to high clouds this morning with
partial clearing this afternoon. Less than a 10% chance of
showers at the terminal. Surface winds NW 10-20 kt with gusts
to 25 kt.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....ST