653
FXUS65 KBOI 131606
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1006 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.DISCUSSION...Models continue to indicate marginal threat (less
than 20 percent chance) of thunderstorms south of Twin Falls
late this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, southwest flow aloft
will provide the region with dry conditions and above-normal
temperatures today. No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear, except for smoke layers aloft
south of KBOI and KMUO. Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR under mostly clear skies. Surface winds: variable
mainly NW less than 10 kt.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Increasing clouds and cooler with breezy
NW winds (gusts 15-30 kt), especially Saturday afternoon. Low
confidence (less than 30 chance) of showers in SE Oregon and the
West Central ID Mountains Sunday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...Southwest flow
aloft will advect warm air into the region today, leading to
highs 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday. Models continue to
indicate a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in and
near Twin Falls County from late this afternoon into the
overnight hours, and SPC has now added this area to the "general
thunder" depicted on their Day 1 outlook. Otherwise, we expect
the remainder of the area to be dry through the short term. A
large upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska will move southeast,
and in response 500 mb heights will fall, resulting in cooler
temperatures. Friday should be 5-10 degrees cooler than today,
and then Saturday will be another 10-15 degrees cooler.
Confidence is high in a cool Saturday, with a less than 30%
chance of reaching 80 degrees anywhere in the CWA. Two
relatively weak cold fronts will cross the area during this
time, one Thu night and another Fri night. Each will briefly
increase NW winds. Finally, a fire created a smoke plume south
of the Owyhees Wed afternoon. This fire is expected to do so
again today, but most likely to a lesser degree owing to weaker
winds in that area.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...The large low centered in
the Gulf of Alaska in the short term will move southeast into
the PacNW Sunday night, potentially spreading showers into the
area. As the low continues to move SE, models diverge on timing
and exact location. Some bring it overhead Monday while others
keep it slightly north and have it passing by Monday night. This
difference is critical in determining how far south
precipitation may be seen. At this time, ensembles are split
rather evenly, but the EC members favor a more southern track,
and this latest forecast has increased the chance of
precipitation over most of the area Monday and Tuesday. This
southern track would also lower temperatures 10-20 degrees below
normal. Very few locations in the lower elevations are forecast
to reach 70 Monday, with highs in the mid 60s expected in the
western Magic Valley and all but the lowest parts of the
Treasure Valley. Temperatures will gradually warm back up to
near normal Tuesday through Thursday, and there is a slight
chance of showers in the northern mountains Wed/Thu.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....BW
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP