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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
161 FXUS65 KBOI 112010 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 210 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...A weak north Pacific upper trough will bring about 5 degrees cooling Wednesday as it moves inland north of our CWA. Thursday looks as hot as today as a short wave upper ridge comes inland ahead of a deep upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska. Generally clear skies until Thursday when clouds begin in southern zones. Models develop enough instability near the ID/NV/UT tri-point for a 10-20 percent chance of high-based thunderstorms Thursday evening. Tonight and Wednesday night will be seasonably cool with dry air and clear skies. No significant smoke indicated by HRRR model. Thursday night looks several degrees warmer with cloud cover and higher dew points. Winds will be light except in southern Harney and Malheur Counties Thursday afternoon/night, when west winds blow 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...A deep upper trough from the Gulf of Alaska will come inland and through our CWA Friday through Tuesday with much cooler air. Initial surface cold front will pass through Friday. Pre-frontal gusty southwest winds will shift to west/northwest 10-20 mph. High temps Friday will be in the upper 70s through 80s. A second cold front will increase northwest winds to 15-25 mph with afternoon gusts 25 to 35 mph Saturday in open terrain. Highs Saturday will lower to the mid 60s to mid 70s, then mainly 60s Sunday and Monday, with breezy northwest winds continuing. Models keep pcpn generally north of our CWA with the best chance (20-40 percent) Sunday night in the central Idaho mountains. Model consistency breaks down Monday with ECM bringing the main trough axis through our CWA while GFS leaves it off the northwest coast. Consensus for now is with the ECM for continued cool, breezy weather Tuesday. && .AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt. Gusts 20-30 kt KBKE-KONO-KMUO tonight as a dry cold front moves through. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 15-30 kt. KBOI...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds: NW 7-13 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....LC AVIATION.....ST