682
FXUS65 KBOU 241548
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
948 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry this upcoming week with no significant
  precipitation chances.

- Record highs possible on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Current satellite imagery shows a blanket of thin cirrus slowly
clearing across the Colorado sky this morning. A thicker blanket
just over the northeastern corner of the CWA will take a little
longer to part, but clear skies are expected by the afternoon. A
few adjustments were made to the sky grids on this update, but
besides that, the current forecast remains on track. Should be a
beautiful day!

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A weak cold front has passed through this morning, but it was a
dry front. Satellite imagery shows quite a bit of high cloud cover
across the state, with most of the mid-level cloud cover over the
far northeast corner and into Nebraska/Kansas.

Today will be quiet, as a large upper ridge shifts eastward into
our region. We`ll be just east of the ridge axis today, with
northerly flow expected through the day. With moisture decreasing
through the day, clear skies are expected by this evening. Quiet
weather will continue tonight with near/above normal lows likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Issued at 134 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A long stretch of warm and dry conditions is expected. With light
winds, there will be no hazardous weather concerns.

An anomalously strong ridge aloft will move over Colorado on
Wednesday. This ridge may break records as the forecast of -5 C at
500mb is equal to the daily max value on the SPC sounding
climatology page for Denver. Furthermore, the ECMWF ensemble
percentiles have portions of Colorado under the maximum 500mb
temperatures for all hours in the database on Wednesday afternoon.
This ridge will lead to sunny skies with light winds and warm
temperatures. Highs are forecast to be in the mid 80s across much
of the urban corridor and plains.

On Thursday, a weak trough will move towards northern Colorado which
will slightly weaken the ridge from record levels. There will still
be strong subsident flow and there will be peak compressional
warming in the low levels as the axis of a thermal ridge develops
over northeast Colorado. With plenty of sunshine, all signs point to
record or near-record breaking temperatures. The high temperature
forecast was increased a couple of degrees as Denver is expected to
reach 90. This would tie the daily record high which was most
recently set in 2010.

A very weak cold front associated with the aforementioned trough
will move through Thursday night. This will lead to light northeast
winds on Friday and high temperatures will be about 5 F cooler as a
result.

Ridging aloft will stay put over the Four Corners region through the
weekend and into next week. Colorado should be far enough west to
not have any impact from meandering trough over the southeast US and
this feature will lead to very stagnant 500 mb flow. It means
Colorado will be dry with warm temperatures that are well above
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR. Winds are light out of the west this morning and should
eventually to a north or northeast this afternoon. Drainage flow
is expected tonight. Wind speeds should remain under 10kt through
the period. No ceiling or visibility concerns.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Bonner
SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...Danielson
AVIATION...Hiris