Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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978 FXUS65 KBOU 240532 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1132 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A dry cold front arrives tonight. - Warmer and drier this upcoming week with no significant precipitation chances. && .UPDATE... Issued at 706 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Only changes at this time are some minor cloud cover adjustments as the cirrus band slides across overnight. Dry cold front is to Cheyenne and our timing looks about right. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 An upper level trough dives south-southeast across the Northern and Central Plains tonight with a closed low forming over Missouri. As this system drops southward, a weak cold front will move south through eastern Colorado tonight. We will see clouds increase this evening, but the low levels stay dry. Dew points behind the front in Wyoming are currently in the 20s and low 30s, so no precipitation is expected behind the front tonight. Main feature from the cold front will be a wind shift to the north late this evening. Increased cloud cover along with north winds will hold temperatures up tonight with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s over northeast Colorado, roughly 4 to 8 degrees warmer than last night. For Tuesday, not much cold air behind the front with highs only a few degrees cooler than today. Highs across northeast Colorado are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Monday/... Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The extended forecast is still on track to bring above normal temperatures and dry conditions to the forecast area as a 500mb ridge builds over the western CONUS. An upper-level low is forecast to setup somewhere near the Mississippi River Valley region by Tuesday night where it is expected to remain through the forecast period. A slight retrograde is anticipated with the aforementioned low around Thursday morning, as an expected tropical system makes landfall somewhere along the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. These two systems to our east will keep the center of the 500mb ridge anchored over the Four Corners region through the end of the week as they block it from moving east. High temperatures are forecast to reach values 10-15 degrees above the norm through Sunday, with near record breaking temperatures expected across portions of the plains on Thursday. With mostly clear skies expected through the middle of the week, we can expect efficient solar heating and radiative cooling to keep days warm and nights cool. With the dry airmass in place, no precipitation is expected. While it is still a ways out, latest deterministic guidance hints at the ridge shifting east, and southwest flow aloft returning by the beginning of next week, as a trough enters the PNW. By Monday, a cold front potentially passes through Colorado from north to south bringing increased winds and dropping temperatures down to near normal to begin October. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1130 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR through the TAF period. Weak cold front should arrive near or just after 07z shifting winds to the north. Winds may wobble back to more of a westerly component during the morning hours, but a steadier light north wind is expected through most of the afternoon and evening. Drainage winds will prevail Tuesday night. Mid/high cloud cover will decrease through the period. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Gimmestad SHORT TERM...Meier LONG TERM...Bonner AVIATION...Hiris