175
FXUS65 KBOU 220946
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
346 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers end this afternoon.

- Well below normal temperatures for today but likely a short-
  lived cooldown.

- Warmer and drier this upcoming week with no significant
  precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Upslope flow continues over northeastern Colorado this morning
producing stratiform rainfall for lower elevations. Weather stations
suggest a few areas along the plains and Palmer Divide received 0.10-
0.40 inches overnight. Scattered showers will continue for these
areas until early afternoon as the upper level trough pushes
northeast. Light snow continues across mountain webcams this
morning. Snow showers should begin to decrease in intensity this
morning leading to an additional 1-2 inches for areas above 10
thousand feet. As upper level forcing exits the region by this
afternoon, cross sections indicate low to mid level clouds
clearing over the forecast areas through this evening. Tonight,
drier air enters.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Some patchy fog and/or frost may linger into the first half of the
morning, but otherwise Monday should be a quiet day as drier
northwesterly flow develops. Mostly sunny skies should prevail
through the day with temperatures back above normal (mid/upper
70s).

Though we`ve talked about the potential for a shortwave/cold front
passing through late Monday into Tuesday, guidance has started to
back away from this, keeping the better moisture/cooler
temperatures off to the east of our CWA. Can`t completely rule out
a couple of showers overnight but have reduced PoPs quite a bit
compared to a few cycles ago.

Guidance is also in much better agreement in the longer term,
developing a large ridge axis over the region Tuesday into
Wednesday. There`s a pretty good signal for temperatures to reach
the mid/upper 80s, especially on Thursday. The ridge should slowly
break down towards next weekend, but above normal temperatures
will likely persist through at least Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/...
Issued at 1155 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions are possible until 09Z. Numerous rain showers
continue for all sites which could lead to brief MVFR conditions
09Z-14Z for all terminals. Lower visibilities could continue
through Sunday morning but there is low confidence in this
outcome. Improving visibilities are possible by 18Z. Winds will
remain northeast this morning then shifting southeast as the
system moves out of northeast Colorado.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AD
LONG TERM...Hiris
AVIATION...AD