Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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681 FNUS75 KBOU 170527 FWSBOU Spot Forecast for Bear Creek Fire...USFS National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1127 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY... .DISCUSSION...Clear overnight with poor humidity recovery of only 35 to 40 percent. Winds will be southwest at 5 to 10 mph. On Monday it will remain dry with critical fire weather conditions from late morning through early Monday evening. Minimum humidity will be around 10 percent. Winds will be southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph until 1200, then increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. .REST OF TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). CWR.................1 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 55. Max humidity........38 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL. Transport winds.....Light winds until 2400, then south 8 to 13 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor. Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........7 5 5 3 3 5 6 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............68 66 64 62 60 59 58 RH..............29 28 29 30 30 30 30 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..5 6 7 7 7 8 8 20 FT wind gust.7 9 12 12 12 13 13 Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Transp wind dir.W SW S S S S S Transp wind spd.7 8 8 9 12 12 13 Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 4 4 5 6 5 6 SmokeDispersion.P P P P P P P .MONDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent). CWR.................1 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 88. Min humidity........10 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph until 1200, then 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0800. 13900 ft AGL after 1500. Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph until 1100, then 24 to 29 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then fair until 1000, then very good until 1100, then excellent. Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........11 9 7 9 9 11 14 13 15 15 17 18 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............56 60 64 68 76 81 82 84 86 87 87 88 RH..............34 32 30 27 19 15 13 12 11 10 11 11 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW S SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..9 8 8 9 10 13 14 15 16 17 17 18 20 FT wind gust.15 13 13 15 16 21 22 24 25 28 28 30 Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.8 1.5 3.5 6.5 8.5 9.8 11 12 13 14 14 Transp wind dir.S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW Transp wind spd.12 12 14 17 21 25 24 25 26 28 29 28 Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 8 17 53 117 186 205 237 271 308 342 335 SmokeDispersion.P P P F VG E E E E E E E .MONDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). CWR.................0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 52. Max humidity........44 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts to around 31 mph until 0400, then west 6 to 11 mph. Mixing height.......13500 ft AGL until 1900. Below 1000 FT AGL after 2100. Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 26 mph until 2200, then 10 to 16 mph until 0500, then southeast around 10 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 1900. Poor after 0500. Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........16 13 11 9 7 5 3 4 6 7 7 7 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............86 85 80 74 72 69 66 64 62 59 56 54 RH..............12 12 14 17 18 20 22 24 27 31 37 44 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W 20 FT wind spd..16 15 14 13 12 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 20 FT wind gust.31 29 28 25 23 21 18 16 15 14 13 12 Mix hgt (kft)...14 6.2 1.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S SE Transp wind spd.26 20 18 17 16 14 13 13 12 12 10 10 Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..309 105 26 14 10 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 SmokeDispersion.E VG P P P P P P P P P P .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent) until 1100, then partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 1700, then mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance of rain showers and thunderstorms after 1200. CWR.................6 percent. LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3. Max temperature.....Around 76. Min humidity........24 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph until 0800, then southeast 5 to 13 mph with gusts to around 22 mph until 1200, then east 9 to 14 mph with gusts to around 25 mph until 1700, then around 10 mph with gusts to around 23 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after 1200. Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0700. 6900 ft AGL after 1100. Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 17 mph until 1500, then east 14 to 19 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1100, then good until 1300, then very good until 1600, then good. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........9 11 12 14 24 35 45 45 45 45 48 52 Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 Temp............53 54 56 60 64 68 71 74 75 75 75 73 RH..............41 43 42 41 37 33 29 26 24 24 25 29 20 FT wind dir..W W SE E E E E E E E E E 20 FT wind spd..8 6 5 7 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 10 20 FT wind gust.13 14 15 16 18 22 24 25 25 25 24 23 Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 M 2.0 2.7 4.1 5.5 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7 6.4 5.2 Transp wind dir.E M SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E Transp wind spd.9 M 8 8 10 13 15 16 17 18 17 15 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 M 15 19 37 61 90 100 111 122 94 70 SmokeDispersion.P M P P P G G VG VG VG G G $$ Forecaster...RPK Requested by...David Waters Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2416272.0/BOU .DELDT 06/16/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL David.waters@usda.gov