779
FXUS64 KBRO 150806
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
306 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

While an upper-level ridge is expected to hold through the
duration of the short term forecast period, this today could see
plenty of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
region. This is due to the influx of moisture from the remains of
Tropical Storm Ileana being carried over by the mid-to-upper
level flow. This will allow for the development of convection over
the Sierra Madre, which will then move into the Upper Rio Grande
Valley. Thus, Starr and Zapata could be the first areas to see the
showers and thunderstorms today and then during the course of the
day these showers and thunderstorms could spread further east.
The best chances for rain however will still be in the western
parts of the region, while rain chances will decrease further
east. Given the amount of moisture in the environment these
showers and thunderstorms could be capable of producing heavy
rainfall at times.

As for temperatures, due to the expected increase in cloud
coverage today, the high temperatures are expected to be cooler
than normal. As such, the highs are expected to be in the range of
upper 80s to low 90s for today. As for tomorrow, the high
temperatures are expected to increase so that the entire region
will be in the low 90s. As for the low temperatures, for tonight,
they are expected to be in the 70s for the area. Another benefit
of the cloud coverage is that since they high temperatures will be
reduced for today, a Special Weather Statement for elevated heat
indices will not be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Modest mid-level ridging will reside over Texas at the beginning
of the long term. At the surface, the pressure gradient will be
weak. Ridging will remain over the area for the bulk of the long
term, possibly starting to break down/shift at the end of the
period. This forecast is not much changed from the previous one. I
populated with the NBM and made no changes.

The forecasted pattern will support warmer than average temps and
elevated afternoon heat index values Tuesday through Friday. The
best chance of borderline low end heat advisory conditions for
some areas will be Thursday afternoon.

Rain chances will tend to trend lower but will not completely
disappear through the long term. Modest southeast surface winds
and seasonal moisture will encourage daily isolated to scattered
sea breeze convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period at all TAF
sites. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected through
the period as skies during the period range from mostly sunny to
partly cloudy. Short periods of MVFR skies are possible, with
isolated rain chances possible during the afternoon hours, but
should diminish by the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Today through Monday...Mostly favorable conditions are expected
through Monday, with light to moderate southeasterly winds and low
seas. Isolated to scattered showers are possible and could result in
locally elevated winds and seas.

Monday night through Thursday night...We expect light to moderate
southeast winds and low to moderate seas. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Mid-level ridging and
a broad area of surface high pressure over the West Gulf will
support mostly favorable marine conditions for the week. Any
convection may contain more chaotic seas and stonger, gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  77  89  78 /  60  50  60  20
HARLINGEN               90  75  91  75 /  70  40  60  10
MCALLEN                 92  77  94  78 /  70  50  60  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         87  75  91  76 /  80  50  60  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  80  87  81 /  50  50  50  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     89  76  89  76 /  50  50  50  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...64-Katz