056
FXUS64 KBRO 181127 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
627 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The primary concern for the short term period will be a tropical
disturbance that is developing over the Southern Gulf. The latest
NHC forecast has this system moving north then westward,
strengthening slightly before making landfall in Mexico. This will
likely advect deep tropical moisture to the region, bringing the
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms starting as early as
this morning and continuing through the period. The greatest
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
night through the end of the period. A large wind field extending
to the north of the system could support tropical storm force
winds along the Island and Coastal portions of Kenedy, Willacy,
and Cameron Counties. A Tropical Storm Warning is in place for
Island and Coastal portions of Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron
Counties.

Heavier rains tonight and Wednesday could pose a threat for flash
flooding, though the bulk of the rain is expected to pass to the
north. The WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall over the
coastal counties today, and across the CWA on Wednesday. The wind
threat associated with this system is expected to decrease as the
system moves further inland.

Stronger winds and elevated seas are expected to produce hazardous
conditions along the area beaches. High Surf, Rip Currents, and
some Moderate Coastal Flooding are anticipated with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 416 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The tropical system will continue to impact the region through
the start of the long term period, with rain chances potentially
lingering into the weekend. An upper level high pressure system
centered over Texas and the Southern Plains will continue to
support easterly to southeasterly winds over Deep South Texas,
potentially funneling additional tropical moisture into the region
through the period.

Beach conditions will likely improve over the weekend as seas
begin to diminish in the wake of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions this morning are expected to gradually deteriorate
through the day, as rain chances increase ahead of an approaching
tropical disturbance. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are
possible throughout the day, with chances increasing overnight.
The MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to develop this evening, and
persist through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A tropical disturbance in the Southern Gulf of Mexico is expected
to move slowly northward then westward, making landfall in Mexico.
A large wind field extending to the north of this system will
likely support high seas as well as the potential for Tropical
Storm Force winds. Winds and seas are expected to improve over the
weekend, with light to moderate winds and moderate seas continuing
through the remainder of the period. A Tropical Storm Warning is
in place for the Laguna Madre and Coastal Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  79  89  81 /  80  90 100 100
HARLINGEN               93  76  87  78 /  80  80 100 100
MCALLEN                 95  78  86  80 /  70  60 100 100
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  77  84  77 /  40  50 100 100
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  80  86  83 /  80  90 100 100
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  77  88  80 /  80  90 100 100

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

     Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
     TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.

     Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 PM CDT Thursday
     for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....60
AVIATION...60-BE