494
FXUS64 KBRO 250849
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
349 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

An upper-level ridge over the western US will keep things fairly
quiet through the short term period. Skies will likely range from
partly cloudy to mostly sunny this afternoon, fostering additional
heating and warmer high temperatures. Lingering moisture will
support PWATs >2 and CAPE values above 1500 J/kg. This combination
could support some isolated convection along the seabreeze this
afternoon. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms look to be
located along and east of I-69C.

Conditions look to dry out Wednesday, with rain chances remaining
near zero through the day. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures
in the mid to upper 90s could allow heat indices to approach Heat
Advisory thresholds Wednesday afternoon. The spatial and temporal
coverage of these higher heat indices looks to remain too low to
justify an advisory.

Favorable beach conditions look to return for the period, with
slight seas supporting a low risk of rip currents.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The most recent tropical outlook from NHC has a 20 percent chance
of tropical development across the Bay of Campeche through the
next 7 days. At the moment, this would keep most tropical impacts
next weekend generally toward Veracruz, but an increased chance of
rain, seas, and dangerous rip currents is possible along the
lower Texas coast Sunday into Monday.

The mid-level ridge remains anchored across Texas this week before
swinging over the Southeast through the weekend, keeping an avenue
for tropical moisture and onshore flow across Deep South Texas
through the forecast period. The NBM maintains convection
offshore, especially overnight into each morning, then brings rain
chances inland each afternoon, generally with the sea breeze. A
rather typical summer setup, with abundant tropical moisture,
making any shower or storm very efficient rain makers.

PWAT values rise to above 2 inches late week, near and above the
90th percentile for late June, with the highest PWAT values of
near daily max values of 2.3 to 2.4 inches arriving Friday
afternoon. Near normal highs and lows are expected through the
long term, with humid conditions briefly pushing Heat Indices
towards 110 degrees each afternoon. Sea breeze convection may
limit highs a degree or two and then stifle Heat Indices as well
where any showers or storms persist. Patchy fog may be possible
each morning, mainly across the ranchlands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at all
TAF sites. Light and variable winds are expected this morning,
becoming light out of the southeast after sunrise. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, however
the coverage is too low to include in the TAFs at this time..

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Today through Wednesday...Favorable marine conditions are
expected through the short term period. High pressure over the
gulf will support light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight
seas. Some isolated showers are possible today.

Wednesday Night through Monday...High pressure works from Texas
into the Southeast through the weekend, maintaining southeasterly
onshore flow across the lower Texas coastal waters. Abundant
tropical moisture will continue showers and thunderstorms each
day, especially late night into early mornings before pushing
onshore with any sea breeze. Small Craft Caution conditions are
possible on Friday and Saturday, mainly across the bay. The
National Hurricane Center has introduced a 20 percent chance of
tropical development across the Bay of Campeche over the next 7
days. Any development could increase rain chances, winds, and seas
next weekend into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             93  80  93  80 /  10   0  10  10
HARLINGEN               94  76  94  76 /  20   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 96  79  96  79 /  20  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  78  95  77 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  83  87  82 /  10   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  79  91  79 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...60