Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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080 FXUS64 KBRO 290522 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 An upper-level ridge over Central Texas will slowly lift to the north this weekend, as an inverted mid-level trough moves across the southern Gulf. This will support an influx of moisture Saturday into Saturday night. PWATs are expected to approach 2 Saturday night, with CAPE values above 1000 J/kg. Conditions are expected to be fairly dry through Saturday, with rain chances increasing Saturday night. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the period, with overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s and high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s on Saturday. Heat index values are expected to approach 110 again Saturday afternoon, with some areas briefly rising above 111. Heat Advisories may be needed for the eastern counties, however confidence is low on the spatial and temporal coverage of the higher heat index values. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The start of the period gives us the best chance for precipitation through the long term. An influx of tropical moisture is expected over the weekend as a tropical wave propagates westward through the Bay of Campeche. There could be some gradual strengthening this weekend with this system but impacts to Deep South Texas will be increased chances of rainfall and increased risk of rip currents. The National Hurricane Center has a 30% chance of formation in the next 48 hours. Sunday will be the best chance of rain across the region from the aforementioned system with chances ranging from 50% across the northern Ranchlands to 70% in the mid and lower Valley. Rain chances will gradually taper off Sunday evening through Monday as this tropical wave/system moves into Mexico. While the rest of the forecast period will likely remain dry, can not rule out a shower or isolated thunderstorm each afternoon along the sea breeze, though POPs remain unmentionable. Temperatures will remain near normal with highs generally in the mid 90s through the first part of the period. As we head into mid to late week, temps will increase slightly into the mid to upper 90s and a few 100s across the Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices could also rise to around 110/111 degrees in spots, mainly late in the week. Currently, it does not appear that time length/area will reach criteria to issue Heat Advisories. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Light to moderate southeast winds with some passing low clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light southeast winds overnight will increase and become gusty later this morning into the afternoon. VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours with sct to occasionally bkn cloud decks mid- morning and early afternoon. Gusty southeast winds later today will diminish late this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Tonight through Saturday night: Pressure gradients are expected to tighten tonight supporting stronger winds along the Western Gulf. This will likely require Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines through Saturday morning. Light to moderate winds are expected through the remainder of the period. A slight uptick in seas are expected through the period, with wave heights forecast to reach 4-5 ft by Saturday night. Sunday through Thursday: A Tropical Wave with a 30% chance of development moving through the Bay of Campeche over the weekend will lead to an increased pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast. MOderate to Fresh Breezes are anticipated on Sunday with wave heights of 6 to 8 feet are are expected. Small Craft Advisories will be needed into Sunday night before conditions improve on Monday. Favorable conditions are anticipated through the remainder of the period with MOderate breezes and wave heights of generally 2 to 4 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 92 81 93 / 30 80 30 40 HARLINGEN 77 93 76 94 / 20 70 20 30 MCALLEN 80 94 78 95 / 10 70 30 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 93 77 94 / 10 70 30 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 87 83 88 / 30 60 20 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 90 79 91 / 20 70 20 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...60-BE LONG TERM....68-McGinnis AVIATION...63-KC