747
FXUS64 KBRO 200551 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Key Messages:

-Tropical Storm Alberto formed in the western Gulf of Mexico this
 morning.

-Periods of heavy rain will continue through the period.

Tropical Storm Alberto will continue to be the main focus for the
short term period with Alberto expected to make landfall Thursday
morning in northeastern Mexico. While the storm will make
landfall well south of the CWA, the broad wind-field of Tropical
Storm force winds has prompted Tropical Storm Warnings for all of
Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron counties. Winds will continue to
increase through the rest of today and this evening, especially
along the coast, where gusts could exceed 45 mph.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
period and the WPC has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall
today and a slight risk Thursday. Heavy rains could pose a threat
of flash flooding through the period. Generally an additional 2
to 4 inches of rainfall is expected for much of the region through
Thursday night. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially
in areas that see multiple bands of heavy rainfall.

Additionally the enhancement of low-level shear profile through
this evening will present a threat for some brief tornadoes. The
SPC has a Marginal Risk today for most of Deep South Texas.

Stronger winds and elevated seas are expected to continue
producing hazardous conditions along the area beaches. High Surf,
Rip Currents, and moderate Coastal Flooding are anticipated with
this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Storm Alberto will continue to impact Deep South Texas for
the first part of the long term period as rain lingers into
Friday. Rain chances will continue into this weekend and next week
as another area of disturbed weather in the southern Bay of
Campeche. This area of disturbed weather along with mid/upper
level high pressure over the southern Plains into the SE U.S. will
continue to lead to east/southeasterly flow helping to funnel
tropical moisture into the region. Current forecast shows another
2 to 4 inches (locally higher amounts) Friday through Tuesday.
Currently the NHC has this system at a 30% chance of development
in the next 5 days.

While temperature have not been quite so high thanks to the tropical
system, next week temperatures will slowly climb back into the 90s
and "feels like" temperatures will creep back up into the upper 90s
and 100s.

Beach conditions will improve over the weekend as seas begin to
diminish in the wake of Tropical Storm Alberto.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to produce intermittent
MVFR to IFR conditions as the outer bands of Tropical Storm
Alberto continue to move through the area. Some improvement is
expected through the day as the Tropical Storm moves inland and
likely weakens. Heavy rain produced by these bands may briefly
lower visibilities. Finally, a Tropical Storm Warning is still in
place for BRO and HRL, and both sites may continue to see Tropical
Storm-Force wind gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Storm Alberto will continue to lead to hazardous marine
conditions through the remainder of the week. Tropical Storm force
winds are expected to persist through at least Thursday afternoon
with seas remaining in the 12-16 foot range through tonight and
slowly lowering through the weekend. By Monday seas of 4 to 5
feet are expected. Another system may potentially develop over the
weekend in the Bay of Campeche leading to additional showers and
thunderstorms into early next week which could locally enhance
winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  91  78  89 /  80  90  90  90
HARLINGEN               77  91  74  90 /  80  90  80  90
MCALLEN                 78  91  77  90 /  80  90  70  90
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  89  75  87 /  80  90  70  80
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  86  82  85 /  90  90  90  90
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  89  78  88 /  80  90  80  90

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ251-254-255-351-354-355-451-454-
     455.

     Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ248>255-351-353>355-
     451-454-455.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ351-
     354-355-451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...60-BE