Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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021 FXUS64 KBRO 202320 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 620 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The high pressure that has been parked in the middle layers of the atmosphere is allowing for similar conditions over Deep South Texas to persist. Slightly above average temperatures are expected throughout the forecast period, however, easterly flow is bringing in elevated dew points thereby increasing "feels like" temperatures to over 100 degrees F. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 70`s to low 80`s. The WPCs experimental Heat Risk product indicates a majority of Deep South Texas will remain in a moderate risk for heat. However, near coastal zones and northern Hidalgo county in a minor risk on Saturday, though Heat Advisory criteria are not expected as the heat indices are below Heat Advisory criteria. Isolated storms along the seabreeze will continue into early this evening and diminished by nightfall. As was the case today, forcing from the sea breeze will bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area beginning mid-morning through Saturday afternoon. Swell and period are expected to increase starting Saturday night, however, rip risk will remain low in the short term. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The mid-level ridge over the region is expected to become more elongated by the start of the period. However, it will still be a big influence for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for most of the long term forecast. However, during the period, the mid-level ridge will be moving off towards the east. Chances of rain start to increase on Tuesday, resulting in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the period as tropical moisture start to work its way into the region. However, the PWAT values are not very high, so odds are not very high for heavy rainfall at this time. As for temperatures, highs are expected be in the 90s for the period. Heat indices are expected to be under Heat Advisory Criteria and a Special Weather Statement is not likely to be needed either. Low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the 70s, with a few places getting into the lower 80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF period, with ongoing heavy showers near MFE potentially leading to brief MVFR to IFR ceilings before quickly improving this evening. Expect ESE winds and another chance of sea breeze showers or thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, with chances and confidence too low at this time to include in this TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Now through Saturday night...Favorable marine conditions continue along the Deep South Texas Coast. Light to moderate southeast to east southeast winds and light seas of 1 to 2 feet, increasing to 3 feet on Saturday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible into this evening and through Saturday. Wind and waves may be briefly higher during thunderstorms. Sunday through Next Friday...Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas will hold through most of the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, and could result in locally elevated winds and seas where thunderstorms are present. Marine conditions could become more adverse to hazardous depending on the development of a potential tropical system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 91 78 91 / 10 30 10 20 HARLINGEN 76 92 74 92 / 0 20 0 20 MCALLEN 80 96 78 96 / 0 20 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 94 76 95 / 10 20 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 81 87 / 10 20 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 89 77 90 / 10 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69 LONG TERM....64 AVIATION...56-Hallman