541
FXUS61 KBTV 181753
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
153 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue over the next week with no
meaningful chances for significant rainfall expected. Warmer
than normal temperatures will continue through Friday, and then
temperatures will trend back towards seasonal normals.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 153 PM EDT Wednesday...No changes in the early afternoon
update as conditions are close to forecast. Widespread high
clouds continue to lift northward into central portions of
Vermont and adjacent Adirondack region at this hour, with
generally partly sunny skies expected through the remainder of
the day.

Previous Discussion...High pressure continues to be the main
synoptic weather feature with persistent dry conditions and
light winds at least through Thursday. Other than a shield of
high clouds helping to limit high temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s, morning fog, with some locations being dense, is
worth mentioning with near ideal conditions for radiation fog
formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 253 AM EDT Wednesday...Thursday night into Friday, broad and
disorganized upper low pressure will consolidate offshore. Building
high pressure over Newfoundland and coastal low pressure near the 40
N 70 W benchmark will keep north to northeast flow across the
region. High clouds will be present, but there are questions to how
much of an effect it can have since moisture seems thin. Another
rinse and repeat of low temperatures around 50 to 60 will greet us
on Friday morning. Then a backdoor cold front will shift southwest
during the day. Whether or not precipitation can occur remains
questionable with little instability and plenty of dry air. With the
front sweeping through highs should top out in the 70s and quickly
cool off in the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 253 AM EDT Wednesday...That high pressure building in
Newfoundland will build south on the western side of an impressive
upper low diving south across the Canadian Maritimes. This will
reinforce cool, dry air across the region. The result will be
another dose of no precipitation, but this time with temperatures
that will be around seasonal norms. By midweek there should be some
precipitation trying to eke into the region. There remains
uncertainty with the evolution of the trough against such strong
ridging north, but there still remains a possibility for rain for
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions will continue through
about 03Z, then another round of fog is expected tonight. Think
high clouds will be thick enough to help prevent fog at RUT,
but SLK and MPV should see persistent LIFR conditions during the
typical timeframe. Light northeast wind and moderately humid
conditions will favor an early development of fog again tonight
at MSS, while some BR will be possible at EFK and a relatively
low chance at brief BR at PBG. Also indicated VCFG at BTV given
the aforementioned light northerly flow, but frequency of IFR
reaching BTV is too low to indicate in the TAF. Winds remain
largely light and terrain driven during the period with
scattered 20,000 foot ceilings at times.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Boyd/Kutikoff