649
FXUS61 KBTV 201140
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
740 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will bring a slim chance for some light rain
showers today. Weather conditions will become dry once again heading
into next week, but with more seasonable temperatures of 60s to
lower 70s during the day and lower 40s to lower 50s at night.
Chances for rain will increase for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 732 AM EDT Friday...Despite some faster flow aloft,
there`s the typical river valley fog, but also a pocket of low
stratus that descended to the surface and has become essentially
fog. Several sites within that initial low stratus are less than
a quarter mile, and these are covering thoroughfares that don`t
always see this degree of fog. So an SPS has been issued through
930am, by which point it should be entirely burned off. Take it
slow this morning, avoid using high beams, and give plenty of
space between vehicles this morning. Previous discussion below.

An upper level low is spinning in the Gulf of Maine with
attendant surface lows to its south and east. We are on the
subsident side of low pressure, but as high pressure builds
south of Newfoundland towards Quebec Province, a backdoor front
will slide southwest. It still appears that a few pinprick
showers could develop, with a focus better chances (we`re still
talking just 20-30 percent) over Orange and Addison Counties in
Vermont. Highs will start to come down as cooler air begins to
infiltrate. Anticipate 70s to near 80 today. Overnight lows
should be cool, although there are some competing factors like
clouds, and a little bit of light southeast flow that may hang
on. Generally upper 40s to upper 50s should be the norm. On
Saturday, a little wrap around moisture from coastal low
pressure near the 40 N, 70 W benchmark may rotate into southern
Vermont and parts of the Adirondacks. Some slight chances are
shown during the day, but again, it`d amount to very little, if
any rain. Temperatures will be in the 70s across the region
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Friday...Ridging amplifies out of eastern Canada
Saturday night and Sunday eliminating shower chances. 925-850mb
remain cooler than recent conditions and combines with at least
partially cloudy skies supporting temperatures around seasonal
averages with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Friday...Dry conditions are highly favored early
next week with high pressure remaining over the North Country. Model
consensus is increasingly consolidating on isolated to scattered
showers Monday night through Tuesday night as low pressure is
expected to stall over the Great Lake region pushing a boundary into
northern New York. Ensembles and deterministic continue to coalesce
into a significant pattern shift mid week onward with the North
Country under a large area of surface confluence with low pressure
just west allowing for southerly flow to efficiently transport
moisture into the Northeast. Daily precipitation chances are favored
with temperatures ranging in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Models
diverge on timing of waves, but agree that at least scattered
showers are increasing in probability.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday... Fog has been pervasive this morning,
with all but KRUT having experienced some over the last 6 hours.
Conditions are expected to gradually improve by 14z as a
backdoor front and sunlight will help to mix out the fog.
Today`s winds will generally be easterly, but there will be some
terrain influences that could lend itself to some variability. A
few showers could develop, but potential impacts to any
terminals appears low. Winds become light and variable after
23z, though a southeast wind at 3 to 5 knots may hang on in a
few locations. Some patchy valley fog may again develop tonight
after 06z.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Haynes