Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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753 FXUS61 KBTV 210543 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 143 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... There are some isolated showers developing over the region this afternoon, rainfall will be light. Weather conditions will become dry once again heading into next week, but with more seasonable temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during the day and lower 40s to lower 50s at night. Chances for rain will increase for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 134 AM EDT Saturday...The region is mostly clear, but there are pockets of high clouds in the Northeast Kingdom, some marine-layer type stratus clouds in southern Vermont and hugging the eastern foothills of the Adirondacks, and a few high clouds on the eastern edge of a shortwave pivoting north over Lake Huron. Partial cloud cover, light gradient flow at the surface, and winds aloft are keeping fog from forming quickly. Forecast guidance suggests these factors will abate later tonight. So during the pre-dawn hours, we should see fog expand across climatologically favored spots. All is generally on track. Have a great night! Excerpt of previous discussion... Minimum temperatures overnight will dip into the upper 40s to upper 50s. Saturday will continue to feature dry and quiet weather. This will be00 the first day in a while that we`re not seeing temperatures creep up into the 80s, so it may feel on the cool side although it`s still warmer than seasonal normals. Afternoon maximum temperatures will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Cooling trend will continue for Saturday night with low temperatures dipping into the mid 40s to mid 50s, and we could once again see some fog in the valleys. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday...Dry weather will persist for the second half of the weekend as the region remains under the influence of upper level ridging and surface high pressure. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals, and feel quite fall- like after this recent warmth, especially with some partially sunny skies. High temperatures will generally be in the 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows will be cooler as well, mainly in the 40s and low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday...The region will remain under the influence of high pressure and upper level ridging through the beginning of next week, bringing another day or two of dry weather. Heading into the middle of next week, chances of measurable precipitation return to the region as a upper level trough over the Great Lakes region shifts northeastwards towards Quebec. This pattern shift will bring increased chances of showers, which will be beneficial given how dry most of the month of September has been. Model consensus shows the greatest chances for showers Tuesday night into Wednesday as a boundary pushes into northern New York with the low pressure to our west. Beyond Wednesday, there continue to be chances for scattered showers, but there is still plenty of uncertainty as to the evolution of the synoptic pattern, so trends will need to be monitored. Temperatures next week will continue to be rather seasonable, with daytime highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...Conditions are a mix of MVFR and VFR as some stratus around 2000-2800 ft agl are lingering near mountainous terrain, and some patchy fog at KSLK. There is some gradient flow keeping fog at bay for now, but this should lighten up, and we should see fog become more dominant at favored locations like KSLK and KMPV about 08z to 09z. Clouds will linger at KEFK and in and out near KMSS, which should limit fog compared to the last several nights, but did TEMPO some 4SM BR for a few hours based on little overall change to the current weather pattern. Beyond 12-13z, fog will diminish with mainly VFR conditions throughout the day. Clouds today will generally remain at or above 5000 ft agl. Winds will be south to southeast around 4 to 8 knots, except northeast at KMSS, through about 00z and then trend light and variable. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Haynes/Myskowski/Neiles SHORT TERM...Kremer LONG TERM...Kremer AVIATION...Haynes/Storm