Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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643 FXUS61 KBTV 101032 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 632 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system centered over southern Quebec this morning will gradually weaken as it pulls away toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence. A continued moist northwesterly flow will bring abundant clouds today, along with scattered light rain showers, especially during the morning hours today. The influence of the upper low will gradually diminish with a trend toward warmer and increasingly sunny conditions for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Valley high temperatures should be well into the 80s by Thursday. The next frontal system is expected to arrive on Friday, with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 615 AM EDT Monday...Low-to-mid level cyclonic flow continues on western periphery of closed upper low translating slowly newd toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence. At 1015Z, a large band of light rain shower activity extended from near KMSS ewd along the intl border into the northern Champlain Valley and across far northern VT. This band of light rain will continue sewd at 20-25 mph during the next 1-3 hours, bringing up to 0.10" of additional rainfall. Highest PoPs around 70% are across far n-central and northeastern VT through 14Z this morning. Appears most of the rain shower activity will shift south and east of the region by this afternoon, with chances for rain showers this afternoon (30-40%) generally confined to s-central VT and Essex County NY. Will see light SW winds shift W-NW this afternoon, and lingering inversion layer will bring abundant stratus and stratocu this morning, with just a few breaks possible this afternoon. Overall pattern favorable for continued below average temperatures, with highs generally in the mid-upper 60s in VT, and only upper 50s to lower 60s across the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley of NY. These stratus should linger tonight, with any breaks in the cloud cover leading to patchy fog overnight, especially in the favored valley locations of central/ern VT. Overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 40s, except lower 50s for the Champlain Valley region. On Tuesday, we should finally see the upper low weaken and move far enough eastward that it loses its influence on our weather. Morning low clouds and fog will gradually dissipate by late morning/noon, with increasing afternoon sunshine and light NW wind conditions. Temperatures will begin moderating as well, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and possible close to 75F in the CT River Valley area. Carried just a 20-30% chance of a rain shower Tuesday afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain areas with shallow instability developing with peak daytime heating. Any rain shower activity will quickly dissipate during the early evening hours with onset of diurnal cooling cycle. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 342 AM EDT Monday...Any showers during the day Tuesday will wane Tuesday night with a loss of instability. Overnight low temperatures look to be seasonable Tuesday night, generally in the low 50s with parts of the Adirondacks dropping into the 40s although if skies are able to clear temperatures may be even cooler. Conditions trend drier by Wednesday with an upper level trough departing and surface high pressure building overhead. Some lingering shortwave energy will allow for some diurnally driven showers Wednesday afternoon, primarily across the Northeast Kingdom, but there is still some uncertainty regarding this feature and if it materializes. 925mb temperatures look to warm to 16-18C, which supports daytime high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday night, with temperatures generally in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 342 AM EDT Monday...After a brief period of drier conditions, chances for precipitation return Thursday night into Friday as a cold front passes through the region. Guidance has started to come into better agreement regarding this feature, with both deterministic and ensemble guidance showing the greatest potential for precipitation on Friday although the feature is still a few days away. Temperatures will warm for the later half of the week, with highs during the day on Thursday in the 80s. Temperatures will be warm during the day Friday, but showers will keep things a few degrees cooler than Thursday. Increasing moisture will keep overnight lows warm ahead of the cold front, only dropping into the 60s. In the wake of the frontal passage, drier and more seasonable conditions look to return for the weekend with upper level ridging and surface high pressure building. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...A continued moist W-NW flow will bring occasional light rain shower activity, especially to the northern TAF locations through the remainder of this morning. Ceilings are not expected to change significantly thru the remainder of this morning, with KSLK likely remaining IFR thru 16Z or so, and ceilings in the MVFR category at KMSS/KEFK. The remaining TAF locations will see ceilings hovering near 3 kft thru the remainder of the morning, with HIR TRRN OBSCD. May see some marginal improvement in ceilings during the aftn hours. A few additional showers are possible this afternoon, but mainly across s-central VT and possibly at KRUT. With partial clearing Monday night, patchy fog is expected to develop and may result in periods of LIFR conditions during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. This would be most likely to occur at the KMPV and KSLK taf locations. Winds are generally expected to be 10 kts or less throughout the TAF period. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Kremer LONG TERM...Kremer AVIATION...Banacos