Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
075 FXUS61 KBTV 171432 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1032 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonable warmth continues through Thursday before a cooling trend brings temperatures back to around seasonal averages. Low chances of showers return with a weak frontal passage heading into the weekend before high pressure returns early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday...High clouds continue to move into the area, and most of the morning fog has lifted. No other forecast concerns today, temperatures will be back in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. Previous Discussion...No major shifts have occurred in the expected evolution of the weather pattern over the next 36 hours. High pressure will remain firmly in control keeping conditions very dry and temperatures above seasonal averages. The one difference will be an increase in high clouds that will help knock a couple degrees off the high temperatures; generally ranging in the upper 70s to mid 80s today and Wednesday. Cloud cover tonight may help keep temperatures a little milder than recent overnight lows. Morning fog in climatologically favored locations remains a good bet today and tomorrow morning. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 AM EDT Tuesday...The pattern remains dry, though there`s a brief shake up. A weak upper low will briefly meander overhead bringing some mid-level clouds Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Forecast guidance suggests that there could be some clouds initially that gradually thin. So the extent of radiational cooling and fog may not be quite as great, but still included fog in the typical locations. Overnight lows will mainly range 50 to 60 still. Despite the upper low, we likely will not be able to develop much, if any, precipitation due to a surface low developing well off the Atlantic and advecting low- level dry air to its north back into our area. Greater cloud cover and lower thicknesses will yield slightly cooler highs compared to recent days in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 321 AM EDT Tuesday...The upper low will continue to meander through the region into Saturday. Again on Friday, there is an ever so slight potential for some rain. The GFS forecast sounding does suggest that a capping inversion is breakable and there should be some surface based instability, but the air will remain rather dry. A back door cold front will shift southwestwards during the day, and that may provide just enough of a spark. We`re talking 10-20% chances of rain at best despite this. By Saturday night into Sunday morning, the backdoor cold front will have swept through and a new dome of high pressure will establish itself once again. The location of the center of this new deep layer high is positioned such that we should hold onto cooler conditions. So we`ll trend back towards seasonal norms for the latter half of September, which are high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s in the day and about 40 to 50 degrees at night. I think I spy an opportunity for rain sometime for the middle of next week, but we`ll see how good my sight is. There`s a strong upper trough or upper low poised to approach James Bay, but that Greenland block is still looking pretty tough (2-3 standard deviations above normal). && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Calm winds and clear skies are providing ideal conditions for fog formation again. LIFR/IFR fog continues at SLK/MPV/MSS while MVFR VIS at PBG/EFK are occurring. Fog should lift/scatter by 14Z with widespread SCT- BKN250. Otherwise, light southerly flow will return after 13Z as fog burns off. More fog is highly probable after 03Z Thursday. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd/Neiles SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Boyd